My Full Breakdown of Toronto's Condo Market

Toronto's condo market in 2024 was one of the strangest markets I've seen in my 10 to 15 years in real estate. Honestly, halfway through the year I thought prices would drop more than they actually did. Instead they stayed largely flat. I'm not saying things are great or that I expect a big recovery in 2025, but I want to walk you through what really happened this year, what caused all the swings, and what we should keep an eye on in 2025.

I'm Moe Asgarian, Principal Real Estate Broker in Toronto and ranked #47 worldwide at RE/MAX. I talk about the Toronto and GTA housing market on this channel all the time. If it's useful, subscribe, and feel free to send this video to a friend who can use it.

Prices held when they shouldn't have

Let's start with the charts. The average condo price in Toronto went way up and way down, but here's the strange part: in a year with this much condo inventory on the market, prices didn't fall any further than they did. With high interest rates and investors losing thousands of dollars a month, you'd expect a much bigger drop. In practice that didn't happen. The market resisted. Prices climbed early, then drifted down, and by the end of the year they came right back to where we started.

Sales volume never recovered in the fall

Starting a year with low sales volume is normal. We usually see a big jump in April, and that's exactly what happened here: April was the peak. But even in April, with 1,328 transactions recorded, that number was still very low compared to past years. Then in the months where we'd normally expect more activity, like August and September, sales dropped again. Volume picked back up from October, and the dip in November and December isn't strange because those months are always quieter. What stands out to me is that prices returned to the starting point and volume peaked in spring but couldn't repeat that climb in the fall.

Months of inventory and a buyer's market

Next is months of inventory, which tells us how far the market tilts toward buyers or sellers. We started the year fairly balanced, which is probably why we saw a small bump in prices. But inventory built up over time, and for almost all of 2024 the market favored buyers. When the market favors buyers, prices usually face downward pressure or at least stay flat. From June through September inventory was very high and clearly a buyer's market. After that, in the fall, inventory came down month after month, partly because a lot of unsold properties don't want to sit on the market through the winter holidays.

There's another reason inventory dropped: falling interest rates. We had investors trying to hold onto their condos. They'd bought on variable rates, and every rate cut improved their situation. If they used to lose around 1,000 dollars a month, after the latest cut in December that loss might shrink to a few hundred dollars a month, which they can tolerate. Many decided to hold, knowing new condos aren't being built and they want a long-term investment. Still, even today the market is balanced or leaning toward buyers.

What actually sold, and at what price

Now let's look at what really sold. The average condo sale price was about 732,000 dollars and the median was around 638,000 dollars. What's interesting to me is the sale-to-list ratio: it was 98%. That means a condo listed at 100 dollars sold on average for 98 dollars. Even though absorption was very low in some months, with only 15 to 22% of available condos finding a buyer, the ones that sold went very close to asking. Keep in mind that 98% is against the last list price, which may have already been cut once or twice.

Average time to sell for the condos that actually sold was 31 days. That doesn't mean every condo sells in 31 days, it only applies to the ones that sold. Plenty of condos that were mispriced stayed on the market with no sale. As for where the volume was, no surprise, the 500,000 to 600,000 range had the most sales, followed by 600,000 to 700,000. If you own a condo priced above 1 million dollars, far fewer buyers are shopping at that level than under 700,000, and that matters for both sellers and buyers trying to read the market.

Condos are a different market

The last chart shows the overall picture right now: a pie of active listings in Toronto. Condos are 59% of active listings, and if you add townhouses it's close to 70%. Inventory in the Toronto condo market is clearly high. By comparison, detached homes are only 21% of listings and semi-detached just 4.45%. This tells you the condo segment behaves very differently from the rest of the market.

Hope, worry, and what to watch in 2025

So what happened? Months of inventory came down from its summer peak. Active condo listings are lower than summer, but the market is still balanced or slightly favoring buyers. The most active segment was the 500,000 to 700,000 range. Prices peaked in March 2024, drifted down, then rose a bit at year-end and returned to the starting point. Only three months of 2024 had condo volume meaningfully above the previous year: April, October, and November. If you'd like a straight answer for your own situation, fill out the form below and book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.

One report I want to end on is the rough state of new condos compared to past years. Yes, sales activity rose and prices didn't fall as much as feared, but new-build condo sales are still in bad shape: down 81% from last November, and 99% below the 10-year average for the Toronto area, with about 55% fewer condos traded than the same November a year ago. What does that mean? Lower interest rates have improved the market compared to recent months, but we're still far from the good days of a few years ago. If you've made it this far, drop a comment and tell me how you see the condo market and what you predict. If you'd like a straight answer for your own situation, fill out the form below and book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.