The Toronto Condo Market: Ten Years in Perspective

Toronto condo prices haven't changed much since 2019. That sounds dull until you look at what happened in between, because the last five years were anything but calm. Here's the decade in perspective, and what it means whether you're buying or selling a condo.

The first five years: prices doubled

Back in 2014 I could buy a client a one-bed-plus-den in Toronto for well under $350,000, around $550 a square foot. Then 2017 hit and prices took off; even Ontario's foreign-buyer tax didn't really slow condos down. From 2014 to 2019, condo prices roughly doubled.

The second five years: a round trip to nowhere

The next five years were a different story. In 2020, as COVID emptied downtown, condo prices fell about 8 to 12% while everyone chased houses. 2021 rebounded hard. Early 2022 was strong until mortgage rates spiked and prices slid through year-end. 2023 rose in the first half, then fell for seven straight months. 2024 ticked up slightly. Add it all up and we're roughly back to late-2019 prices.

Why prices stalled

Higher rates are the obvious driver, but not the only one. The pre-construction market was a mess: people bought 20 to 30% above resale prices hoping to flip, then closed with little or no gain. Around 66% of Toronto condos are vacant or tenanted, owned by investors carrying high-rate mortgages and waiting to sell. Many investors left for markets like Calgary. And rent control splits the market between units occupied before and after November 2018.

The widening gap to houses

Before the pandemic, the average condo trailed the average detached by about $700,000. As I record this in April 2024, that gap is near $930,000 and heading toward a million. That matters: most condo owners are first- or second-time buyers whose units haven't appreciated enough to bridge that gap, so moving up to a house is harder than it looks on paper.

What I expect next

I don't see a big price swing in 2024, just small moves up and down. The real turn likely comes around mid-2025, as interest rates ease and the widening gap to houses pushes buyers back toward condos. One thing hasn't changed: quality sells. Only about 30% of current inventory is genuinely worth buying, and a well-run, owner-occupied building still draws competing buyers today. Stay well and take care.