My Full Toronto and GTA Condo Market Forecast

The condo market is the number one worry I hear from my clients, so I try to put out at least one or two videos on it every month. In this one I want to give you my read on the current pre-construction and condo market, and walk you through what to do if you are a buyer or a seller. I'm Moe Asgarian, Principal Real Estate Broker in Toronto, ranked Top 1% at RE/MAX worldwide. Welcome to the Team Asgarian channel.

New-home sales in Toronto have hit their lowest level ever, and the condo market is basically asleep. According to Altus Group data, new-home sales this August set the worst record in history. The interesting part is that this is not a supply problem. The number of homes available is at its highest in 10 years. The issue is simply that nobody is buying condos anymore. A few years ago people lined up to buy a condo in this city. Now the picture has completely changed.

The Numbers Behind the Slowdown

Total new-home sales across the GTA in August were just 300 units. That is 42% less than last year and 81% below the 10-year average, the worst August recorded in 16 years. Of those 300, about 182 were single-family or detached homes, down 21% from last year, and 118 were condos, down 59%. So single-family homes actually outsold condos. In the city of Toronto itself, only 53 condos changed hands.

On the supply side, inventory is at a 10-year high. In August there were 2,250 new homes for sale, more than 10% above last year and roughly double the inventory of August 2022. In under three years Toronto went from a shortage to a glut. A lot of investors have left this market and prices have come down.

What Is Really Happening to Prices

Single-family or freehold homes are dropping hard. In August the average fell to about $1,460,000, down 8.5% from a year ago, which is roughly $135,000 cheaper. From the July 2022 peak it has dropped around $470,000, so close to a quarter of its value is gone.

Condos tell a slightly different story. Their average price has stayed nearly flat, down only about $800 from the previous month and about 2% from a year ago. But measured from the 2022 peak, condos are down 17.9%, around $223,000. That apparent stability is misleading: units are bigger, the price per square foot has slipped a little, and most of all, buying and selling have nearly stopped. Everyone seems to be waiting.

The Boom That Set Up the Bust

If you look at the trend, the crash came right after an explosive run-up. Back in 2015 the GTA average was around $200,000, and just before the drop it climbed above $800,000. That fast rise pulled people in to buy and invest. Then between 2022 and 2025, sales fell roughly 17% in Toronto and close to 10% in Vancouver, wiping hundreds of thousands of dollars off home values.

Even with prices down, plenty of people still cannot afford to buy. Many condos sold in pre-construction were never absorbed and are now finished with no buyers. The units are ready to hand over, but there is no one to take them, and new projects are struggling to find buyers too. Some builders have cancelled their projects, and this slump has made the investors who jumped in nervous. I think we will need to see more construction projects get cancelled before the market comes back to life.

What Actually Sold This Month

The discouraging headlines are real, but the stats also show where the demand still is. In the city of Toronto this month, condos priced between $500,000 and $600,000 saw better-than-average interest. By size, units between 600 and 700 square feet sold best. A vacant condo had a better chance of selling than a tenanted one. And over the last three months, more than 80% of the units that sold had parking.

My Advice to Sellers and Buyers

To sellers: if you possibly can, hold back and do not bring your condo to market right now. The power is in the buyer's hands and they will negotiate as hard as they can to take it at the lowest price. To buyers: I'm not saying this is the absolute best time to buy. Even with rate cuts, condo prices could keep falling, or they might not. But if you can genuinely handle the costs of buying, be active and hunt for a condo. For example, a 2-bedroom condo of 600 to 800 square feet with parking in a good area is worth thinking about. Should we buy it tomorrow? No. But in a market like this there are always strong options, and only someone who is ready and prepared can take advantage of them.

Remember, in the best case right now you might buy a condo that still costs you a bit out of pocket each month if you rent it out. A good condo does not mean clearing $100 a month on a $700,000 unit. But in any downturn, after five years a condo can give you good equity and can be a safe investment for many people. Choosing a condo is choosing a lifestyle, and plenty of people still pick a condo over a freehold home because of the amenities a house cannot offer. If you are renting and wondering whether to buy or keep renting, ask yourself how long you plan to hold. Renting lets you move easily after a year; owning ties you in longer. If your plan is a 4-or-5-year hold, today can be a good opportunity. If you'd like a straight answer for your own situation, fill out the form below and book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.