My 2024 Toronto Market Predictions: What I Got Right

One of my most-read pieces last year was my 2024 forecast. At the start of the year I put together a set of predictions and shared them with you. The honest truth is that forecasts are never exact, and what actually happens often differs from what you called.

Now that we are starting 2025, I want to go back and see how those predictions held up. I'm Moe Asgarian, a senior Toronto real estate advisor, ranked number 47 worldwide at RE/MAX. Let me walk through what we thought at the start of 2024 and what actually happened.

Prediction One: Rates and Prices

My first call was that interest rates would come down, and that had two parts, one for detached prices and one for condos. The rate cut happened, and plenty of people saw it coming, so that was not a surprise. The Bank of Canada did not cut at its first three meetings of 2024. Then it cut at five meetings in a row: early June, late July, early September, late October, and mid December. Three of those were 0.25% and two were 0.5%, for a total of 1.75% off over the year.

Detached vs Condo, What Actually Moved

On detached homes, the average in the GTA went from about $1.35 million in January to $1.45 million in November, a year-over-year gain of around 3%. So prices rose, but not the sharp jump I expected from falling rates. Prices started climbing in September, yet the bigger effect of cheaper borrowing showed up in sales volume, which took off from April and May. Condos were a different story. I predicted a recovery, and the first half of the year did see some price gains. But inventory was so heavy that it capped prices. Year over year, condo sales in Toronto rose 28%, while the average price slipped about 2%. The cheaper mortgages showed up in transactions, not in price.

Prediction Two: The Year of the End-User

My second call was that 2024 would be the year of the end-user. Investors would sit on their hands while people who actually needed a place to live would buy. That held. Looking at the sales numbers, the figures were not that attractive for investors, especially in condos. If someone bought a condo this year, they most likely bought it to live in. The resale market moved toward recovery as lower rates lifted volume and nudged prices up a little. Pre-construction, as I expected, stayed stagnant. Nothing happened to change how people feel about that market.

Prediction Three: Where I Got Rents Wrong

My third prediction was about rentals. I said the landlord's market would continue and that rents could rise up to 5%. Part of that was right: rents stayed high across the year. But the part where I said average rents would climb did not happen. A record number of condo units hit the Toronto market in 2023, and that supply pushed the market to correct, especially in the final months. Rents came down, and the average rent at the end of 2024 was actually lower than at the start. So the call that rents stay high was fair, but the call that the average goes up was wrong.

My Call for 2025

2025 is a hard year to forecast. We should expect a change in Canada's government from Liberal to Conservative, and a new administration in the United States. Those are big shifts for the Canadian economy and they feed straight into housing. Still, the picture I have is that 2025 will be a better year for real estate and for the Canadian economy than 2024 was. I will put out a full 2025 forecast soon.

I like sitting down at year-end to see how my calls actually turned out, and I would love to know your own read on 2025. If you want to talk through what this means for a purchase or sale you are planning, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.