Toronto's Condo Market in 2025: What Buyers, Sellers and Investors Should Know

The Toronto condo market is a topic I keep coming back to, and for good reason. Whether you live in your condo, rent one, or hold units as an investment, what happens here touches your finances directly. So let me open up the numbers and show you where things actually stand.

I'm Moe Asgarian, a Principal Real Estate Broker in Toronto, ranked #47 in the world at RE/MAX and in the top 1% in Canada. Let's get into it.

Where the numbers stand right now

You have probably sensed it already. The condo market in Toronto is not in good shape. In April, condo sales across the GTA fell 30% compared with last year. The average price landed at $678,000, which is 6.8% below last year and about 16.5% down from the peak we saw last year. Vancouver is telling the same story. Condo sales there dropped 20% year over year in April, and the benchmark price came in around $762,800, roughly 1.8% lower than last year and 9% down over three years. Most forecasts expect more pressure ahead. TD economists, for example, think GTA condo prices could slide another 10% this year. Every month new units keep piling onto the ones already sitting unsold. Apartments that used to sell in a few days can now sit for weeks. Months of inventory has reached 7, which is genuinely unheard of. Last year close to 30,000 condo units were delivered across the GTA and Hamilton, and that supply reflects demand that existed two or three years ago, demand that simply is not here anymore.

Why the small units are struggling

Let's sort the problems. First-time buyers who waited a long time still find prices out of reach. Things have eased a little, but for many people buying a condo is still close to impossible. I hear it often: with the money they have and the mortgage they can carry, the condo they can afford is tiny. For a lot of them it is honestly easier to rent a bigger unit than to take on the cost of a 650-square-foot box. And you can see how we got here. When demand was strong, builders shrank units as much as they could to squeeze out more profit. Now that the market is oversupplied, that small square footage is hurting everyone.

What this means for investors

The other real problem is the pre-construction market. I started warning about this last year, and now we can plainly see how risky getting in has been. Immigration numbers have come down, demand has fallen hard, and rents are following. One-bedroom condo rent in Toronto is down about 6% from last year, and Vancouver is off more than 4%. Good for tenants, not for investors. With interest rates high and rental income lower, buying to rent no longer pencils out. Most investors have stepped back, because there is no price growth to count on, and cash flow at a 4% rate simply does not work. Many are sitting on heavy losses because projects they bought years ago are now worth less than they paid. Here is the flip side though: units that are priced right and have a livable floor plan still sell well and fast. Take a condo we recently sold, a two-bedroom with two bathrooms, parking and a locker at 18 Graydon Hall, unit 603. We first listed it at $700,000. After two weeks nothing happened, because that was really a price to test the market. We pulled it, brought it back at $599,000, and still did not get an offer. In that window two comparable condos in the area sold at $630,000 and $640,000. We changed strategy, listed at $640,000, and over roughly two months on the market we sold it for $635,000. Congratulations to our seller.

What the Liberal win changes for buyers

Now that the Liberals have won, this deserves its own section. They have opened the door for first-time buyers wider than ever. They removed GST on a first home purchase, expanded the First Home Savings Account, eased tax conditions, and let you withdraw up to $60,000 from your pension plan. The 30-year amortization for first-time buyers is still in place too. I have covered these programs in detail before and I would urge you to review them. For investors I expect the Liberal government is less welcome news. I think the rules will keep shifting in favor of tenants, short-term rentals will get harder, and anyone holding several properties will likely pay more tax soon. My advice to investors: if your condo is rented, keep renting it. If you are not happy with the units you hold, prices have come down, so it can make sense to trade up and improve your position. And I will say it again, nothing, truly nothing, matters more right now than a good tenant.

My price outlook

For anyone thinking of moving up from a condo to a larger home, do not underestimate the market discount, and if your finances allow it, act, because the market favors this group right now. If I look ahead on price, over the next year or two I don't expect any wild jumps. Prices will probably grow somewhere between 1% and 4% a year, and that growth owes more to townhouses than anything else. Looking five years out, to 2030, I think prices at least return to where they were three years ago, around 2022. Downtown condos near transit and units in strong areas are the winners in this market. Beyond a good product finding buyers in any market, I also expect the Canada-US relationship to improve, and I hope a tariff agreement comes sooner rather than later. If you would like a real read on your own situation, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation, and we will talk it through together. Stay well and take care.