Toronto Housing Market: The Spring 2026 Outlook

Spring is here, and that makes it a good time to look back at the first-quarter numbers for 2026 and figure out what the Toronto housing market did over the winter. I am Moe Asgarian, a Principal Real Estate Broker in Toronto and part of RE/MAX's top ranks worldwide. Here is what the data says, and what I think you should watch for this season.

Winter did not break the market

We had a cold, long, snowy winter, and plenty of people expected the market to freeze along with the weather. It did not. Through January, February, and March, the buyers who had been waiting for a cheaper entry point started showing up. Lower rates, tax breaks, and softer prices gave them a reason to finally act. Nothing about the quarter was dramatic, but it was steadier than a lot of the doom talk suggested.

The deals buyers actually got

On my own team, the buys we closed this quarter were nowhere near peak-market prices, and that was the point. A few examples. One buyer picked up a two-bedroom apartment in a nearly new building around Yonge and Eglinton for $700,000, with parking and a locker, plus a good incentive on the unit. Another landed a house in the Banbury and York Mills area at what used to be teardown pricing, $2,300,000. Renovated homes in that pocket were sitting near $3 million as recently as last year. Good locations, real discounts, on properties families actually want to live in.

Sales and prices across Toronto

Look at the City of Toronto and you can see the shape of it. By the end of the quarter, 466 homes had closed. That is down about 7.4% from the first quarter of 2025, and 2025 was already nothing to brag about. A lot of people figured last year was the floor for transaction counts. Winter proved otherwise. The average price came in a little above $1 million, down roughly 6.2% against the same three months last year. Keep in mind this is a full quarter compared to a full quarter, not one cherry-picked month. Prices are down across the board. I will not tell you this is the absolute bottom, but if you find the right property, you can buy well right now.

New listings and the rise of power of sale

New listings are down too, about 15% year over year, and that matters more than it sounds. Roughly 13,000 new listings came to market in the city, still a big number, but a smaller one than last year. When both sales and new supply drop together, that is calmer than the alternative. The scary version is when sales fall while listings pile up. What did climb is bank sales, the power-of-sale listings. There is now a steady base of them in the market, which tells you sellers are under real pressure. In any neighbourhood where a power-of-sale property trades, treat that low number as the new floor. Once a home sells cheap, the next seller has a hard time getting more.

Playing the spring market smart

Two numbers will tell you most of what you need. First, new listings in the specific neighbourhoods you care about. If they keep shrinking, you are likely looking at a more balanced, more predictable market there. Second, months of inventory: divide the homes available by the number selling. The smaller that figure, the hotter the area and the faster homes move. Two more things worth knowing. The HST rebate on new construction now applies whether or not you are a first-time buyer, and it can knock up to $130,000 off, or come back to you as a rebate later. And on rates, with the Strait of Hormuz situation and higher inflation, variable holders may be fine while fixed rates keep drifting up.

Sellers, do not sleep on spring. In Markham we listed a property on Briar Path for $998,000 and sold it above a million in under two weeks. In Richmond Hill we listed on Wexcliff and sold very close to asking. Once summer arrives, inventory usually climbs and competition among sellers gets tougher. My read for the season: something close to last year, maybe transactions down around 5%, with no wild swing in either direction. Buyers, get out there, see homes, and offer a number that makes sense for you rather than getting emotional or chasing a bidding war. If you want help buying or selling, my team and I are here for it. Fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.