My 2025 Toronto Housing Predictions: The Full Scorecard

As of January 2026, my 2025 predictions came out mixed. I was right on the interest rate cuts, the immigration slowdown, the weak condo market and falling rents. I was wrong on prices and on sales volume. And I was half right on the election and on who would hold the upper hand in the market.

I am Moe Asgarian, a principal real estate broker in Toronto with RE/MAX. Every January I put my forecasts for the Canadian housing market in writing, and a year later I go back and grade them. Doing it in public keeps me honest, and the misses teach more than the hits. Here is the scorecard, one call at a time.

Interest Rates: The Prediction That Landed

A year ago I predicted that the Bank of Canada would keep cutting and that by the end of 2025 we would be talking about a policy rate near 2.5%. The Bank had already cut to 3.25% in December 2024, and I expected the trend to continue. It did. As of January 2026 the policy rate sits at 2.25%, a full percentage point below where it was a year earlier, and a quarter point lower than I had forecast.

Ottawa Changed Hands, But Not the Way I Expected

My second call was that the Trudeau government would step aside sooner or later. That part was right, and in early 2025 it was close to obvious, even though no resignation had been formally announced at the time. What I did not see, and I do not think many people did, was how much Trump's election would reshape Canadian politics. From late January 2025 he pushed the tariff question onto Canada and turned the country upside down. Before that the Liberals looked finished, and the polls had Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, winning comfortably. The bigger fear of what tariffs would do changed everything, and Mark Carney took power in March 2025. Right on Trudeau leaving, wrong on who would replace him.

Where I Was Wrong on GTA Prices and Sales

I predicted that prices across all property types in the Greater Toronto Area would rise by roughly 5% through 2025. That one was off. Before the tariff announcements, with borrowing costs coming down, the numbers were actually heading that way. Then the tariff fight stopped the market. Over 2025, prices ended up down about 2.5% overall. The market was worse than I had predicted.

I also expected more transactions in 2025 than in 2024, since 2024 sales volumes had been so low. Full year figures were not published yet as of January 2026, so a clean comparison of the two years is not possible, but it looks like 2025 finished with even fewer sales than 2024. Another miss, and in the same direction. I was more optimistic than the market deserved.

The Toronto Condo Market Stayed Weak, As Expected

My fourth prediction was that condos would not get more expensive in 2025 and that the condo market would have a poor year. Unfortunately that one was right. Through 2025 there were a lot of condos sitting on the market and relatively few of them trading. It was a cold market. And even so, condo prices are still out of reach for plenty of buyers, which is the part of this that frustrates me most.

Lower Immigration Showed Up in Toronto Rents

I predicted that 2025 would be the year Canadians clearly felt lower immigration, and it was. By the latest figures available in January 2026, immigration numbers are running below both 2023 and 2024. The shift in the government's approach was already visible in late 2024, so this was not a wild guess.

Where it shows up is housing. I predicted that average rents in Toronto and the GTA would be lower by the end of 2025, and they were. Condo units also sat empty for longer. Rents and vacancy are where a change in population flows gets felt first, well before sale prices move.

Who Held the Upper Hand in 2025, and Where Deals Got Done

My seventh prediction was a balanced year, with condos favouring buyers and freehold leaning more toward sellers. The condo half was right. The freehold half was not, because by the end of 2025 freehold was a buyer's market too. Buyers had leverage almost everywhere.

The last call I will grade was that homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million would have a very good year. Figures published through January 2026 showed an average sale price close to $1 million across all home types, condos and freehold together, and an average detached sale price between $1.3 million and $1.4 million. In practice, the buyers who had both the means and the nerve to buy a detached house closed good deals in exactly that band.

If you want to talk about what this scorecard means for your own plans in 2026, whether you are buying, selling or waiting it out, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.