As of April 2026, three numbers framed Canada's market. The typical home price rose about half a percent in February 2026, roughly $3,500, to $661,300, the first monthly gain in eight months. Canada's population fell year over year for the first time on record in the first quarter of 2026, and the February 2026 job losses looked like a recession.
I am Moe Asgarian, a Toronto real estate broker with RE/MAX, ranked #47 worldwide and in the top 1% in Canada, and these three stories landed in the same few weeks in the spring of 2026. They pull in different directions, so it is worth taking them one at a time.
A Typical Canadian Home Got More Expensive in February 2026
Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association showed the price of a typical Canadian home rising in February 2026, the first positive move in more than half a year. In February 2026 the increase was about half a percent, roughly $3,500, bringing the figure to $661,300. The February 2026 price was still 4.8% below February 2025, about $33,020 lower, and 21.4% below the market peak, a gap of roughly $180,000. One month of gains is not a trend. Every trend does start somewhere, which is why this one was worth noticing.
Sales Were Still Running Below Last Year
Resale activity did not follow the price. Residential sales through the MLS system in February 2026 came in lower than in February 2025, so the price uptick happened in a market that was still quieter than it had been a year before. That combination, firmer prices on thinner volume, is what you get when sellers hold their line and fewer buyers are willing to move.
Ontario's 13% HST Rebate on New Homes up to $1 Million
The policy that could change the arithmetic is Ontario's HST measure for new construction. As announced and as it read in April 2026, buying a newly built home priced up to $1 million lets you recover the 13% HST, and it applies even if it is not your first home and even if you are buying it to rent out. That is a serious number on a new build and it is aimed squarely at getting construction moving again. Confirm the current rules and your own eligibility before you count on it, because programs like this get amended.
Canada's Population Fell for the First Time on Record
Statistics Canada's estimates for the first quarter of 2026 showed the population declining at the fastest recorded pace, and falling on an annual basis for the first time in the country's history. In the first quarter of 2026 Canada lost about 103,500 people, and it was the first time the population dropped in two consecutive quarters. Almost all of it came from the non permanent resident population, which fell about 6% in the first quarter of 2026. The driver was the sharp change in immigration policy.
February's Job Numbers Looked Like a Recession
Employment fell in February 2026, and the damage was concentrated entirely in full time work. In February 2026 about 84,000 jobs disappeared, while full time employment dropped by 108,000 in that same single month. Statistics Canada's data also showed that what little growth there had been over the previous year came mostly from an expanding public sector, and by February 2026 the unemployment rate reached a level normally seen in a recession. Employment is one of the main inputs the central bank weighs when it decides on interest rates, which is why that release mattered well beyond the labour market.
What This Mix Means for Toronto Buyers and Sellers
Put the spring 2026 picture together and you have a country with less population growth, a weaker job market, and prices that stopped falling for one month. What I tell clients in Toronto is to stop waiting for one clean signal, because it is not coming. Fewer new residents pulls demand down over time. A weak labour market pushes the central bank toward lower rates, which pulls demand up. The HST rebate works on the supply side. Three clocks, all running at different speeds.
The practical move is to decide on your own numbers, your own financing and your own timeline, and to be ready when a specific property is priced wrong. That is the opportunity in a quiet market, not a national average.
If you want help reading what these numbers mean for a specific purchase or sale in Toronto or the GTA, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.
Frequently asked questions
What was the price of a typical Canadian home in February 2026?
$661,300, after a rise of roughly half a percent, about $3,500, during February 2026. It was the first monthly increase in eight months, and the February 2026 figure still stood 4.8% below February 2025, about $33,020 lower, and 21.4% below the market peak.
How does Ontario's HST rebate on new homes work?
As announced and as it read in April 2026, a buyer of a newly built home priced up to $1 million could recover the 13% HST, including buyers who already own a home and buyers purchasing the property to rent out. Programs like this get amended, so confirm the current terms and your own eligibility.
Why did Canada's population decline in early 2026?
Immigration policy changed sharply. Statistics Canada estimated a loss of about 103,500 people in the first quarter of 2026, almost all of it from the non permanent resident population, which fell roughly 6% in the first quarter of 2026. It was the first time the population dropped in two consecutive quarters.