As of November 2025, the honest answer is close to where it is now. Oxford Economics' September 2025 report has Canada entering a cycle with no crash and no boom. Nominal prices dip, then grind higher. Adjusted for inflation, prices stay roughly flat through 2030, which means a long stretch of stability rather than a drop or a surge.
I am Moe Asgarian, a principal real estate broker in Toronto, ranked 47th worldwide inside RE/MAX. When I started 2025 I said, based on the reports and the figures, that prices were not going to rise much or fall much that year. The five year picture in this report is the same idea, stretched out in time.
What the September 2025 Oxford Economics Report Forecasts
The report describes a market entering a cycle without a crash and without an explosion. If you expect homes to get dramatically more expensive, or prices to fall apart, it says neither is coming. Nominal prices come down a little, then slowly rise again. Real prices, the ones calculated with inflation taken into account, stay more or less flat until 2030. That is a long and frankly boring period of stability, a market pulled upward by inflation rather than by real growth. It also puts pressure on a belief many people hold, that housing always runs ahead of inflation or works as a shelter from it. Over this stretch, that belief may turn out to be wrong.
The Floor and the Ceiling: Why Neither a Crash Nor a Jump
Two opposing forces are holding the market in place. The floor is the chronic shortage of supply, especially detached homes and land, which keeps prices from falling through. The ceiling is the large number of multi unit projects on the way, investor demand that has dropped a long way, and a price to income ratio that is very high. That balance holds as long as no other variable hits the market.
The 1990s Comparison, and Where It Stops
Canada has been in a similar position before. In the 1990s a large number of building projects had been completed and were not selling, and that is what pushed prices down. The number of units is rising quickly again now, but supply is not as large as it was in the 1990s and is unlikely to be that severe. Even so, the recovery timeline is worth sitting with. Oxford expects prices to reach their earlier peak only in the early 2030s, roughly 2033 on the report's chart, about the same twelve year wait the 1990s cycle needed.
The Near Term: Listings Above Sales into Early 2026
According to the report, two cuts of 25 basis points by the Bank of Canada in the fall of 2025 brought some buyers back, but the number of listings stays above sales volume. So prices hold around that level or come a little lower into early 2026. Oxford expects the bottom of the market to form early in the following year, with activity improving through 2026 as affordability gets a little better, trade uncertainty fades and employment slowly returns. Most cities see price declines in the second half of 2025, by early 2026 only about a quarter of cities are still falling, and from the second half of 2026 very slow growth comes back. The strongest growth in the forecast is in Calgary, Montreal and Halifax, then Toronto and Vancouver.
Oxford expected listings to outnumber demand in the fall of 2025, which is exactly what the new Toronto real estate board report on the GTA showed at the time. Until prices come down a bit further there are not enough buyers to grow the market. Once prices reach the point where people can afford them, sales volume picks back up.
Rents, Rates and New Construction
Lower population growth, high costs and thinner investment returns are keeping new project starts limited. On the other side, rental supply is rising fast, and in late 2025 that pushed rents at the national level below their 2024 level. With immigration slowing, rental demand is easing too. On interest rates the report makes a point worth repeating: even with Bank of Canada cuts, fixed rates may go a little higher. The Bank cut in September 2025 and another cut was forecast for October 2025, yet Oxford has the five year fixed rate moving from 5.1 to 5.4 by the end of 2026. A lower policy rate does not automatically mean lower fixed rates.
What This Means If You Own or Are Buying in Toronto
Plan for a calm, almost flat market. If you own, the focus moves to cash flow. If you are buying, the focus moves to getting a discount. The second point I have made here more times than I can count: look at housing over the long term. Prices rise gradually over the coming years, so the frame is five years and longer, not the short term. The mortgage decision deserves real thought, because you are going to live with it for several years.
If you are investing, Toronto condos are worth a look, since many are on the market at genuinely low prices, and then the work is finding the locations that produce good rent. One more thing to hold on to. Real estate is directly connected to the stock market, and a rise or fall there feeds through. Nobody can tell you when a market has hit bottom or is approaching a top, which is why forecasts like these can change a great deal before they arrive, and why we watch the market daily and area by area.
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Frequently asked questions
What does the September 2025 Oxford Economics report forecast for Canadian home prices?
It describes a cycle with no crash and no boom. Nominal prices come down a little and then slowly rise again, while real prices, adjusted for inflation, stay more or less flat until 2030. The market gets pulled up by inflation rather than by real growth.
When does the report expect Canadian prices to reach their previous peak?
Not until the early 2030s, roughly 2033 on the report's chart. That is about the same twelve year wait the 1990s cycle needed before the market returned to its peak.
Which Canadian cities does Oxford expect to grow fastest?
In the September 2025 forecast the strongest growth is in Calgary, Montreal and Halifax, followed by Toronto and Vancouver. Most cities saw price declines in the second half of 2025, and by early 2026 only about a quarter were still falling.