As of late December 2025, two numbers matter for anyone watching the Toronto market. Canada's unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in November 2025, the lowest in about sixteen months, which makes a near term Bank of Canada rate cut unlikely. At the same time a RE/MAX report found one in ten Canadians intending to buy a home within twelve months.
I am Moe Asgarian, a principal real estate broker in Toronto with RE/MAX, and my days are spent on Toronto and GTA deals. A strong jobs report and a hopeful buyer survey pull in opposite directions for anyone waiting on cheaper financing, so here is how I read both.
Canada's Unemployment Rate Fell to 6.5% in November 2025
The November 2025 unemployment rate came in at 6.5%, unexpectedly, the lowest figure in roughly sixteen months. Just one month earlier, in October 2025, it was 6.9%, and in September 2025 it had reached 7.1%, a level not seen since 2016 outside the pandemic years. That is why such a fast drop drew so much attention.
54,000 New Jobs, With One Important Caveat
Official figures show the Canadian economy created 54,000 new jobs in November 2025, at a time when most analysts expected either very weak growth or outright job losses. It was the third consecutive month of employment gains. The caveat matters: a large share of those jobs are part time rather than full time. Most of the growth came from the private sector, and particularly from young people aged 15 to 24. That age group had a hard year in the labour market through 2025 with a high jobless rate, and in November 2025 their unemployment rate came down to about 12.8%. Still a high number, but better than it was.
Where the Jobs Were, and Where They Were Lost
By sector, the most new jobs in November 2025 came in health care and social assistance, followed by hospitality and food and natural resources. Jobs were lost in wholesale, retail and manufacturing, which cancelled out part of the gain. Geographically, Alberta was the star of the November 2025 report with 29,000 new jobs. New Brunswick and Manitoba also grew, while other provinces including Ontario showed no particular change, which is worth noting if you are reading this from Toronto. In November 2025, hourly wages grew 3.6% year over year, reaching about $37 an hour.
What It Means for the Bank of Canada
Economists converged on one conclusion. With a labour market like this, GDP growth better than expected, and inflation that is still not fully under control, the chance of a Bank of Canada rate cut was very low as of late December 2025. Some went further and said the rate may not move until the middle of 2026. A late 2025 inflation reading around 2% was part of the same picture and gave the Bank room to hold instead of act. The short version is that the labour market did better than expected, but more reports are needed before anyone should trust it with real confidence.
The RE/MAX Report: Buyers Heading Into 2026 With More Hope
The other item worth covering is the RE/MAX annual report, which finds that would be home buyers are heading toward 2026 with more hope. After a fairly slow and tiring 2025, potential buyers appear to be regaining their confidence. The signs point to a growing number of first time buyers and, probably, more market activity starting next year.
According to the report's data, released in December 2025, one in ten Canadians said they intend to buy a home in the next twelve months. That figure is higher than it was in early fall 2025, and about half of those people are first time buyers. Between January and October 2025, home sales were down from the year before in 19 of the 33 markets studied, while listings for sale rose in more than 75% of the regions covered. That combination means the market is moving away from the severe listing shortage of 2024 and toward balance.
Financing is still the deciding factor, and the report puts a number on it. In the late 2025 RE/MAX survey, about 23% of Canadians said that if the Bank of Canada cut the rate by just half a point to a full point, they would be ready to buy a home. Among Canadians aged 18 to 35, about 21% believed the economy would be better in 2026, while around 10% of the overall population said they planned to buy.
Return to Office Is Changing What First Time Buyers Look For
Many younger buyers are changing their search criteria, particularly with the gradual return to in person work. The report says return to office directives are affecting the decisions of first time buyers. People are rethinking the idea that where I live is the only thing that matters. Commute time and the shape of the daily routine are back in the conversation, because a lifestyle has to fit a schedule that now includes being at the office.
Taken together, the labour market reports and the late 2025 inflation figure around 2% pushed the Bank of Canada toward holding the rate, and with a group of buyers ready to step in, 2026 could be a more hopeful year than 2025. Housing is still out of reach for many people, and rates still need to come down further before families can buy comfortably. If you want help deciding whether to move now or wait, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.
Frequently asked questions
What was Canada's unemployment rate in November 2025?
It was 6.5%, down from 6.9% in October 2025 and 7.1% in September 2025. That was the lowest reading in roughly sixteen months, and the economy added 54,000 jobs in November, the third consecutive monthly gain.
Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates in 2026?
As of late December 2025, economists put the odds of a near term cut as very low, pointing to a stronger labour market, better than expected GDP growth and inflation that was not fully tamed. Some expected no change until the middle of 2026.
How many Canadians planned to buy a home in 2026?
A RE/MAX annual report released in December 2025 found that one in ten Canadians intend to buy a home within the next twelve months, up from early fall 2025, and roughly half of those people would be first time buyers.