A Good Time to Buy in Toronto: A Look at the New Monthly Numbers

The April 2024 numbers from the GTA tell an interesting story. Sales dropped for the third month in a row, and at the same time prices ticked up by a small 1.5 percent. I am Moe Asgarian, a senior real estate broker in Toronto, ranked number 47 at RE/MAX worldwide. Let me walk you through the latest figures from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board so you can read this market with clear eyes.

These stats cover the sales and prices recorded in April 2024. A few of them point in one direction, a few point in another, and that mix is exactly what makes this a good moment to pay attention.

Sales Cool, Prices Hold

Compared with the month before, home sales across the GTA came in 3.4 percent lower. March had already slipped by about 2 percent, so this is a trend rather than a one-off. The surprise sits on the price side. The average price rose 1.5 percent month over month and reached $1,120,000. That is the highest average we had seen since December of the prior year.

More Homes, Fewer Buyers Rushing In

New listings for the month were down about 6 percent from March, and months of inventory nudged from 2.5 in March to 2.6 in April. In plain terms, if no new home came to market, that is roughly how long it would take to sell everything already listed at the current pace. Look year over year, though, and the picture flips. New listings in April were up close to 50 percent compared with the same month last year, while sales were about 5 percent lower.

Why Buyers Pulled Back

Back in December and January, hopes for lower interest rates ran high, and that optimism pushed sales up in those two months. As we moved into February and March, the enthusiasm cooled, the market cooled with it, and investors stepped in with more caution. Many people expected inflation to fall fast early in the year and the economy to strengthen quickly. It did not move at the speed a lot of folks assumed, so the odds of an early rate cut faded. The Bank of Canada overnight rate had been stuck at 5 percent since July 2023, and mortgage rates stayed high on the back of it.

What the Board Expects Next

Nobody can predict the future, but if we look at the economists in Canada, many were forecasting a 25 basis point cut from the Bank of Canada in June or July. The Board reads the current setup this way: plenty of would-be buyers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for rates to drop, and the moment borrowing gets cheaper, a lot of them will move to buy. The Board believes cheaper loans will warm the market in the months ahead and bring more momentum through 2025.

My Take for Buyers and Sellers

The headline for me is the big rise in new homes coming to market. That jump in listings reminds me of the days before COVID, and it means more competition among sellers and more choices for buyers. With the right plan and a careful look at the details, you can make a strong purchase in a market like this. If you are selling, check the numbers for your own pocket of the city, because conditions change from area to area. As I recorded this in early May 2024, homes in the Beaches and Riverdale were selling with offer dates and stronger prices, while a place like Newmarket felt quieter.

If you are thinking about buying or selling and want to talk through your own situation, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation with me and my team. Stay well and take care.