Toronto's Busy November: Rising Sales and New Mortgage Rules

November 2024 gave Toronto's housing market some real reason for optimism. Home sales rose again, and every figure points the same way: falling interest rates have made buyers more hopeful about this market. I'm Moe Asgarian, Principal Real Estate Broker, ranked #47 worldwide at RE/MAX. Let's walk through the GTA numbers and see how these rate cuts, which are still coming quickly, are moving the market.

A fourth straight month of rising sales

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, there were 6,450 transactions in November. On a seasonally adjusted basis that's a 1.9% increase, and it comes right after a 12% jump in October. That makes four months in a row of rising home sales. The numbers match what we lived through on our team: November was busy, and a lot of people who had been sitting on the fence about buying a house or a condo finally made their decision and did it. Keep in mind that December is usually a quiet month, so following the pattern of past years, we probably won't see sales climb further in December compared to November.

Houses hot, condos soft

Here's the reality of the market: even with lower rates and cheaper borrowing, home prices are still high. In November, buyers leaned toward freehold homes, detached, semi-detached, and townhouses. That appetite for houses pushed competition up in that segment and kept prices from falling. The average price of a detached home in the Toronto area was $1,452,518, up 3.9% from November of last year. The condo market, on the other hand, is still full of options, new and older apartments alike, so buyers have plenty of choice. The average condo price in November was $689,599, down about 2.5% from last year. So when you hear that sales are up, it's worth knowing where the energy actually is. The buzz in the freehold segment is not what you see in condos.

More sellers, but a weekly dip in inventory

Another interesting figure: more sellers decided to list in November, and new listings were up compared to last year. In October new listings had risen 6.6%. It looks like falling rates nudged sellers to test their luck too. That said, if you look at the weekly numbers, condo and house listings have actually dipped compared to earlier weeks. So year over year listings are higher, but month to month it's a different story. Weekly inventory data shows months of inventory falling in both the condo and house segments.

New mortgage rules arriving in December

If you've been following our team, you'll remember I've mentioned the new mortgage rules a few times. This fall the federal government announced changes that take effect in mid-December. They let buyers put down a smaller down payment on more expensive homes, and for first-time buyers they extend the amortization period from 25 years to 30 years. These are all good signs that the market is climbing out of its slump. But remember, home prices are still below their peak from early 2022, and the central bank keeps cutting rates despite the soft economy, so mortgages get even cheaper for buyers.

Around the GTA, and what we saw on the ground

If I sum up the GTA, average prices are up about 2% from last year, but the number of transactions is up roughly 40% year over year. Overall the GTA numbers were encouraging, driven by the stronger freehold segment, which is a big part of this market. In Newmarket, sales were 64% higher than November last year. In Richmond Hill, homes were 12% pricier and transactions were up 25%. In North York, we saw a 42% rise in sales. In plain terms, and this is what we lived on our team in November: for good homes, the ones with no real issues, priced between one and one and a half million dollars in York Region or Toronto, there are plenty of buyers. Those homes are selling with multiple offers. Find a good property in that range and you'll suddenly see it pulling 9 or 10 offers and selling for more than what we thought was a fair price.

In November we managed to buy the homes four of our clients were after, two of them on offer date, and we also sold two of our good listings. For 2025, with rates coming down, I expect an even better market for sellers and more transactions than 2024. If you're thinking about buying or selling, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.