June 2024 Housing Numbers: What the First Rate Cut Actually Did

The Bank of Canada finally decided to lower interest rates after several years, and June 2024 is the first month we can see how that cut hit the market. Let me walk through the numbers for both Canada and the Toronto area.

I am Moe Asgarian, Principal Real Estate Broker in Toronto, ranked 47th worldwide at RE/MAX. Here is what June actually showed.

Toronto Sales Cooled in June

The first thing to know is that home sales in the Toronto area fell in June, down about 17% compared to June last year. Even though the Bank of Canada took its first step and lowered the rate, many buyers are still sitting back to see whether more cuts are coming. Last June, 7,429 homes and condos sold. This June it was 6,213, roughly 1,200 fewer.

So sales dropped, and buyers are being patient. That patience is the story of the month. A single rate cut was never going to flip the market overnight, and the June data confirms it.

Prices and New Listings

The second number is the average home price in the GTA. It came down about 1.6% from last year and landed at $1,162,000. So sales are down and prices have eased a little. The third piece is new supply. Like the past few months, new listings rose, up about 12% compared to the same period last year, which gives buyers more to choose from.

Analysts said the rate cut created a psychological change in the market, but they expect it will take a few more cuts before someone is ready to take the plunge. That fits what I am seeing. The mood shifted before the numbers did.

The Canada-Wide Picture

Across Canada the story is different. Sales rose both month over month and year over year. From May to June, sales were up roughly 4% nationwide, and compared to June last year they were up about 9%. Average prices came down a small amount versus last year.

The Canadian Real Estate Association noted the changes are not big enough to say the rate cut moved the market. Still, it is a good sign for the Bank of Canada, telling them they can continue their policy without much worry. For buyers it is less exciting, since prices are still high and buying a home takes a lot of cash. We are seeing more resistance in Toronto and Vancouver, and a small shift across Canada that may slowly reach cities like Toronto.

What I Saw Outside the Big Cities

One more thing from experience. I recently went to a real estate conference in Kelowna, British Columbia, where around 200 top-producing agents from across Canada shared their markets. I learned that this calm we feel in Toronto and Vancouver is not the story in places like Calgary, Alberta, and Halifax. Those markets are very hot, prices are climbing, and they are seeing multiple offers. That contrast was striking.

My last note is that we cannot judge a whole year, or even a season, from one month of numbers. We have to wait and see what the Bank of Canada decides in the coming months, and how buyers and sellers react. If you are planning to buy or sell in this market, fill out the form below or book a free consultation and we can talk it through. Stay well and take care.