In March 2026 the GTA housing market did something it had not done since September. Sales rose year over year in March 2026, up 1.7% on 5,039 residential trades. Prices kept sliding, with the average March 2026 sale price at $1,017,796, about 6.7% below March 2025. More buyers, cheaper homes, fewer new listings.
I am Moe Asgarian, a Toronto real estate broker with RE/MAX, ranked #47 worldwide and in the top 1% in Canada, and my team buys and sells condos, townhouses, semi detached and detached homes across the GTA every month. Here is what the March 2026 numbers looked like from inside the deals, and the one place I think they get misread.
GTA Sales Rose for the First Time Since September
TRREB's report for March 2026 counted 5,039 residential sales across the GTA, 1.7% more than March 2025. That is the first year over year gain in sales since September. On a seasonally adjusted basis, March 2026 sales were also up 1.4% from February 2026. None of that makes it a hot market. It has been a buyer's market for a long time, and what the March 2026 data shows is that more families decided to use that advantage. A sign, not a boom.
Prices Kept Falling Even as Sales Rose
The average selling price in the GTA in March 2026 was $1,017,796, about 6.7% below March 2025. The composite benchmark, which tracks a typical home rather than the mix of what happened to sell, was 7.4% lower in March 2026 than in March 2025. So the market was tilted toward buyers and homes were still getting cheaper at the same time. That is exactly why many investors were sitting on their hands in early 2026. When the price is falling, waiting feels free.
Fewer New Listings, So Buyers Still Hold the Cards
New listings coming to market in March 2026 were down 16.7% from March 2025. In March 2026 total inventory shrank about 8% from a year earlier, leaving 21,596 active listings across the GTA. Put that beside rising sales and you get the picture: more demand, less new supply. Negotiating power was still on the buyer's side in March 2026, and sellers were still the ones showing flexibility on price and terms.
Inside the City of Toronto in March 2026
The City of Toronto showed the first signs of the same shift. Close to 2,000 transactions closed in March 2026, with a sales to new listings ratio of 34% that month and roughly 8,189 active listings. Months of inventory sat at about 4.2 in March 2026, meaning that at March's pace it would take a little over four months to clear the standing supply. In March 2026, homes that did sell took on average 99% of their last asking price, which tells you sellers had already adjusted the list price before the offer came in.
Why New Construction and the HST Break Matter
The quiet factor under all of this is building. Builders and investors still had little appetite to start new projects as of March 2026, and a thin pipeline for the next few years is a real reason the market stays calm. That is the gap the federal and Ontario HST relief on new homes was meant to close, and as of early 2026 that tax break was the biggest incentive on the table for builders. Whether it actually moves shovels is the question worth watching.
Where I Still See Deals: Toronto, Richmond Hill, Aurora and Newmarket
I do not think prices grow this year, and the March 2026 data did not change my mind. What I do think is that good deals exist, in certain pockets of the City of Toronto and in the stronger neighbourhoods of Richmond Hill, Aurora and Newmarket, where a patient buyer with financing already arranged can negotiate properly.
I also want to be clear about scenario talk. If supply stays low and demand keeps creeping up, flat prices through the rest of 2026 is a reasonable outcome, and TRREB's own March 2026 report raised that possibility for a tightening market. That is a scenario, not a prophecy. I do not predict the market. I read the trend and tell clients what each path would mean for them.
If you want a read on your own street, your own building or your own timing, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.
Frequently asked questions
How many homes sold in the GTA in March 2026?
5,039 residential properties traded across the Greater Toronto Area in March 2026, 1.7% more than in March 2025. It was the first year over year increase in sales since September, and on a seasonally adjusted basis March 2026 sales were also 1.4% above February 2026.
What was the average GTA home price in March 2026?
The average selling price in March 2026 was $1,017,796, roughly 6.7% lower than March 2025. The composite benchmark price, which represents a typical home rather than the mix of homes that happened to sell, was 7.4% below its March 2025 level.
Was March 2026 a buyer's market or a seller's market in the GTA?
A buyer's market. New listings in March 2026 were down 16.7% from March 2025, yet 21,596 active listings remained across the GTA and the City of Toronto held about 4.2 months of inventory that month, so buyers could negotiate and sellers were the side showing flexibility.