In July 2026, home sales across the Greater Toronto Area came in about 0.9% below July 2025, while new listings fell close to 18% year over year. That gap is the news. Supply is shrinking faster than demand, so the market is drifting away from the buyer's market of the past year without turning into a seller's market.
I am Moe Asgarian, a real estate broker in Toronto, and I read the monthly reports the way I read my own deals, looking for the direction of travel rather than the headline. Here is what the July 2026 numbers say about the GTA, and what they do not say.
What the July 2026 numbers show
The July 2026 report showed sales roughly 0.9% below the same month a year earlier. In practice, that is flat. July 2026 was also the fifth month in a row of rising transaction volume. The line that mattered more was new listings, down close to 18% from July 2025. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose compared with June 2026 while new listings fell, which means the relationship between supply and demand became more competitive over the summer of 2026.
Why fewer new listings matter
When new listings fall faster than sales, a bigger share of the standing inventory gets absorbed each month. Buyers end up competing for a smaller pool of homes. That is a real change, and it is the first thing I point out to anyone who stopped paying attention to the GTA market after the spring.
It does not mean we are back in a seller's market. As of July 2026 the number of listings is still high, many buyers are still cautious, and there are still sellers who have to show flexibility on price to get a deal done, sometimes going lower than they planned. What changed is the direction, not the condition.
GTA prices in July 2026, by home type
The average selling price across the Greater Toronto Area reached about $1,004,000 in July 2026, roughly 4.5% below July 2025. The benchmark price index in July 2026 was down about 4.6% from a year earlier. So prices have not grown. Compared with June 2026, though, the index rose a little. That increase is small and on its own it is not the start of an upward wave, but it does suggest the pace of decline has slowed.
Within the City of Toronto, the average selling price in July 2026 was about $1,011,000. In the 905 region around the city, the July 2026 average came in near $1 million. By home type across the GTA in July 2026, detached homes averaged about $1,292,000, semi-detached about $965,000, townhouses about $817,000, and condos about $636,000.
Condos are still the weakest part of the market
Downward pressure is not spread evenly. The condo price index across the GTA was down more than 7% from a year earlier as of July 2026. In July 2026 the annual drop in the condo price index was more than 9% in York Region and around 7% in the City of Toronto. Even as the wider market moves toward better balance, condos are still facing high inventory, weaker demand and more price pressure than any other segment.
What July 2026 means for buyers and sellers
For sellers, fewer new listings is relatively good news, because it can mean less competition among sellers in the months ahead. Pricing wrong still costs you. A property priced above the market in the summer of 2026 can sit for weeks or even months, and the longer it sits the weaker your position gets.
For buyers, there is still room to negotiate. It may not be as much room as there was a few months earlier in 2026. Plenty of potential buyers are waiting for more certainty about the economy, tariffs, inflation and the cost of borrowing. If you are waiting for a much steeper drop in prices, here is what I tell my clients: if listings keep shrinking, your bargaining power shrinks with them.
The longer view behind the monthly numbers
The broader picture is still not comfortable. The data shows thousands of agents leaving the industry because transaction volume has been slow. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has forecast that housing construction will decline over the next two years. Less construction does not automatically mean a calmer market, and as of the summer of 2026 we are dealing with heavy supply, especially in condos and pre-construction.
My advice is to read the monthly reports alongside the medium and long term analysis, then bring it back down to your own street or your own building, because that is where the decision actually gets made. If you want to go through what these numbers mean for your situation, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.
Frequently asked questions
Was the Greater Toronto housing market a buyer's market in July 2026?
In July 2026 the GTA was still tilted toward buyers, with high inventory and cautious demand, but it was moving away from that position. New listings fell close to 18% from July 2025 while sales were nearly flat, so buyers were competing for a smaller pool of homes than earlier in the year.
How much did Greater Toronto home prices fall in July 2026?
The average selling price across the Greater Toronto Area was about $1,004,000 in July 2026, roughly 4.5% below July 2025. The benchmark price index in July 2026 was down about 4.6% year over year, although it rose slightly compared with June 2026.
Why were Toronto condo prices falling faster than house prices in 2026?
As of July 2026 the condo segment carried higher inventory and weaker demand than the rest of the market. In July 2026 the GTA condo price index was down more than 7% from a year earlier, more than 9% in York Region and around 7% in the City of Toronto.