My 2025 Condo Price Prediction for Toronto

Houses and townhomes have their own story, but every so often it is worth a full look at the condo and apartment market in Toronto and the GTA. Condos are the first step into real estate for a lot of people, and whatever happens here shows up not just in the housing market but across Canada's economy. I am Moe Asgarian, Principal Real Estate Broker in Toronto and ranked #47 worldwide at RE/MAX.

Let me walk through where condos stand right now and where I think they are heading.

The short answer for 2025

If you came for a quick answer on Toronto condo prices in 2025, here it is: through late 2025, prices are unlikely to climb much. This is a buyer's market, and 2025 is a year when a large number of brand-new condos arrive. I understand why many people expect condos to get more expensive next year. They watch rates fall month after month, and cheaper mortgages, and they assume that means more demand and higher prices. It is not that simple.

What the condo numbers say

Yes, sales are up. Condo transactions in Toronto are up 37.7% from last year. But look at how long a condo sits on the market, because that number is worse than a year ago. On average it takes 32 days to sell a condo in Toronto, which is 28% longer than last year. Prices are down about 6% from last year. Months of inventory in the city has climbed above 5. Condos are harder to sell right now, and a big reason is the investor. A large part of Toronto's condo market is made up of investors, not end users, people buying to profit from price growth or monthly rent.

Who is selling and why

Dig into the type of condo and it gets interesting. Nearly half the condos on the market today are one-bedroom or one-bed-plus-den. If you are buying, that means lots of good options. If you own one, it means plenty of competition to stand out from. Another point: about 46% of the condos on the market today are vacant, mostly newer units whose owners want to sell rather than rent. Another 33% are being sold by the owners who live in them. Selling a condo with a tenant inside is hard right now, so many owners clear the unit first to show it well.

Who is buying condos

Condo buyers fall into four groups: first-time buyers, investors, people moving down from a house to a condo, and luxury buyers. The third and fourth groups are a small slice, so the real focus is on first-time buyers and investors. And investors are in a bind. Many bought two or three years ago at around $1,300 per square foot and now want to sell, but comparable, good condos are listing lower. No investor wants to sell at a loss, so they wait for prices to improve. When a large share of the market is in that position, prices do not jump quickly.

The long game on condo investing

On top of that, a wave of new supply is coming. An estimated 40,000 new condos are expected to hit the market in 2025, many pre-sold to investors who will take delivery and, in a lot of cases, decide to sell. All of that holds prices flat in the short term. But I am talking about the next year or two. The long-term picture is different. A good condo, bought at the right price, can still be a strong investment, and in many cases the rent covers your mortgage cost while you hold it.

A five-year-plus plan for a Toronto condo is still a very good option. Just do not expect falling rates alone to make condos expensive soon, because high inventory stands in the way. If you want to talk through the condo market for your own buy, sell, or investment, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.