My Summer 2024 Forecast for the Toronto Housing Market

The last few weeks brought a lot of news about Toronto real estate, and the biggest was falling interest rates. That shift is opening up good opportunities, and it can also create headaches if you are not paying attention. I am Moe Asgarian, I run Team Asgarian, and we buy and sell homes and condos across the Toronto market. In 2024 I ranked #47 at RE/MAX worldwide.

Buyers are stuck at a crossroads. Buy now and risk prices slipping if rates do not fall, or wait and risk getting priced out. Sellers feel the same tension, unsure whether now is the time to list or hold. Let me share how I see the summer playing out.

A flooded Toronto condo market

Right now there are more than 7,000 condos for sale in the city of Toronto, and that is a lot. It is safe to say we are not going to run short of condos this summer. I expect prices to dip slightly, and here is why. Of those 7,000 condos, more than 3,500, over half, have been on the market longer than a month. That is the market telling those sellers their price is not right and is not drawing offers. Look closer and about 1,600 of them have been listed more than 60 days. When you sign with a listing agent in Toronto, the contract usually runs about 90, 100, or 120 days, so a big chunk of these condos are in the middle or the final stretch of that agreement. Toronto's condo market has about 6 months of inventory, meaning only 1 in 6 sells each month. Many of these will not sell.

Why an offer date is the wrong move now

I keep hearing about offer dates lately. An offer date is when you list well below market to draw attention, collect several offers, and let them compete and push the price up, a bit like an auction. That strategy works in markets with very low inventory, under 2 months, a true seller's market. In today's Toronto condo market, with 6 months of inventory and only about 15% of active condos selling each month, it is the wrong call. Sure, if a condo has a huge terrace or a standout floor plan that will get away from you, competing makes sense. As a general approach this summer, I do not recommend it, and if someone suggests it for your condo, I would push back.

Do not sleep on the assignment market

Around 70% of condo owners tell me they would rather wait a year or two to sell at a better price, and if today's numbers do not make sense to them, they hold. But plenty of people are in tough spots and have to sell. One part of the market worth watching is assignments. These are sellers who pre-bought a condo a few years ago and are now reaching their closing date but, for whatever reason, cannot close. Many bought in 2021 or 2022 and want to offload the assignment. This is where you might find someone willing to sell 10% or even 20% below what they paid back in 2021 or 2022.

Freehold stays a seller's market in the city

For freehold, meaning houses like townhomes, semis, and detached, my prediction is that the city of Toronto stays a seller's market through the summer, where sellers keep the upper hand. Outside the city, in places like Richmond Hill, Aurora, and Newmarket, the freehold market is calmer right now in July 2024. I think freehold listings build slowly through the summer, but do not expect prices to drop much or a sudden flood of homes. Many owners who want to list will wait for the first or second week of September. On rentals, a report shows Toronto rents have come down both year over year and month over month, in the range of 2 to 3%. I expect the rental market to stay strong and busy this summer, like it does every year.

The best and worst times to make your move

One last thing on timing. In my view, August is one of the worst times to list your home in Toronto, specifically from August 15 to September 1, and again from December 15 to January 1. People are traveling or enjoying the summer, and they are not watching the market. But if you are a buyer, that is exactly the window to put in low offers. In the second half of August you can bid aggressively on semis and detached homes, even in very good Toronto neighbourhoods. Why? Anyone who listed in that stretch has most likely already bought their next home, so they are motivated and more willing to accept a lower offer. Bad time to sell, great time to buy.

Remember, about 70% of transactions happen in the first half of the year, so the back half is a different game. If you want help buying well or selling your home or condo on strong terms, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation with my team. Stay well and take care.