Ontario Home Prices From 2013 to 2023: What the MPAC Data Shows

MPAC data covering 2013 to 2023 shows that affordable housing has nearly vanished across Ontario. In 2013, 74% of Ontario houses were priced under $500,000. By 2023 only 19% were, and most of those sit hours north of Toronto. Condos followed the same path, from 88% under $500,000 in 2013 to 11% in 2023.

I am Moe Asgarian, a broker with RE/MAX in Toronto, and I read these periodic reports closely because they say something the monthly sales numbers never do. The report here comes from MPAC, the municipal property assessment corporation, and as of March 2024 it was newly out. It has many sections, and five of its findings are worth setting out plainly.

Ontario Affordability From 2013 to 2023

The first finding is blunt. Over the ten years from 2013 to 2023, the number of affordable units in Ontario shrank badly. In some areas, as of the 2023 data, even a home under $750,000 is hard to find at all. The average price in the Greater Toronto Area sits at roughly $1 million on that data, and in a city like Hamilton it has reached $765,000.

That Hamilton figure is the one that lands hardest. Hamilton was for years the answer for a buyer priced out of Toronto, and by 2023 the average there was $765,000. The report's broader point is that prices went up everywhere in the province across that decade, not only in the GTA, so moving away from the city stopped being a reliable way to buy cheaply.

Why Prices Climbed: Supply, Construction Costs and Inflation

The second finding is the list of causes. Supply and demand comes first. Then the rising cost of labour and construction over the 2013 to 2023 period, and alongside it high inflation. Those are what the report names as the main drivers of rising house prices and of the shrinking number of affordable homes for buyers.

Nothing on that list is quick to reverse. Labour and material costs do not fall back on their own, and a decade of demand running ahead of new construction does not get solved in one season or one policy. When clients ask me whether waiting will fix the affordability problem, this is the part of the report I point to.

Houses Under $500,000: From 74% to 19%

The third finding is about houses. In 2013, 74% of houses in Ontario were priced under $500,000. In 2023, that share was 19%. Keep in mind this is the whole province and not the GTA, which matters, because many of the houses left in that range are nowhere near the city.

As of the 2023 data, most of that 19% is in Sault Ste. Marie, North Bay, Sudbury, Windsor and Thunder Bay. Sault Ste. Marie is about 700 kilometres from Toronto, which means roughly seven hours of driving north. The report also found that 57% of Ontario homes were priced above $750,000 in 2023, and the homes still under $750,000 were mostly in cities such as Kitchener, Kingston, Ottawa, London and Barrie. London is around 200 kilometres from Toronto, more than two hours by car.

Condos and the $500,000 Line

The fourth finding is about condos, which were supposed to be the entry point into the market. In 2013, 88% of condos in Ontario were priced under $500,000. In 2023, across the entire province, only 11% of condos were.

That is the sharpest number in the report. A first time buyer in 2013 could walk into most of the Ontario condo market with a budget under half a million dollars. By 2023 that share was down to 11%, and the units still inside it tended not to be where the jobs are. A ten year window makes the change visible in a way that a monthly report cannot.

Semi-Detached Homes and Townhouses Under $750,000

The fifth and last finding covers semi-detached homes and townhouses, the two types that have always been treated as the affordable middle of the market. Both got expensive. As of the 2023 data, the inventory of semi-detached homes priced under $750,000 had come down to 33%. Townhouses told the same story, with the inventory of townhouses under $750,000 declining to 51%.

Put the five findings together and the message of the report for 2013 to 2023 is one thing: buying a home on a modest budget has become steadily harder in Ontario. That is exactly why it is worth following the market and these periodic reports closely instead of checking in once a year, because the numbers move while people wait. If you want help working out what your budget actually buys and where, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.