Trump's Win and What It Means for Canada's Economy and Housing Market

As of November 2024, Donald Trump has won the United States presidential election. For Canada the first effects are economic rather than an immediate jump in house prices: a proposed 100% tariff on imports, a Canadian dollar at a two-year low in November 2024, and renewed American interest in Toronto and Vancouver real estate.

I am Moe Asgarian, a Broker in Toronto with RE/MAX, ranked 47th worldwide and in the top 1% in Canada, and part of what follows is what I see in my own deals. There is still a lot that is unclear about the policies of this new term, but from what has been said out loud it is possible to make a reasonable call. Some news is not about the Toronto market directly and moves it anyway.

What a 100% tariff would do to Canada's economy

The tariff plan is the part I feel most confident about. As of November 2024, the proposal on the table is a 100% tariff on imports, and that lands directly on Canadian exports. If demand for Canadian products falls, economic growth falls with it. In an analysis available in November 2024, economists at Desjardins estimated that those tariff plans could cut Canada's gross domestic product by 1.8% by 2028. Their report used the word recession. I would rather not repeat it, but the tariff question is real, and my hope is that whoever holds power in Canada can win an exemption for the country so Canadian exporters are not caught in it.

A weaker Canadian dollar and a jittery market

This one needed no forecasting. Whenever the party in power changes in the United States, Democrat out and Republican in or the other way around, worry rises in the markets and the United States dollar swings. That turbulence carries into Canadian financial markets. As of early November 2024, that same worry had pushed the Canadian dollar to its lowest level against the United States dollar in two years. For anyone buying with borrowed money, a jumpy currency is a reminder that rates and costs can move for reasons that have nothing to do with the house you are standing in.

Why Canada's 2025 federal election matters here

Canada has a federal election coming in 2025. Based on the forecasts and the events as of November 2024, if the vote were held that day the Conservatives would win it. My read is that a Conservative government would likely work with Mr. Trump more usefully and more effectively than what we saw from the Trudeau government, and that cooperation could help the Canadian economy and set up a better position for the country. That is a judgement call, not a certainty, and it is worth watching rather than betting on.

American interest in Toronto and Vancouver real estate

We saw a version of this around the 2016 election, and as of November 2024 it looks more serious. Many people, including those from immigrant families, feel at risk with Mr. Trump in office and would rather move their home or their capital to Canada. In 2016 there was a wave of coverage about how much American traffic to Canadian property sites had jumped. It does not mean all of those people actually moved here, but the attention is real. Royal LePage said that during the 2024 election period, American visits to its site doubled. I have had clients who decided during Mr. Trump's earlier term to come back to Canada from the United States so that family visits and travel were easier, and I am seeing that pattern again. If more capital flows toward Toronto and Vancouver, it can touch prices in parts of Canada.

The foreign buyer ban still applies

Here is the limit on all of this, and it matters. As of November 2024, Canada's ban on foreign home buyers is in force, so someone who is not a permanent resident, a work permit holder or a citizen cannot practically buy a home here. What does exist, as of November 2024, are special immigration streams for people who hold United States status and want Canadian permanent residence, a PR card or a work permit, and those can move faster and take less time than the usual route. So the housing effect arrives after status does, not before. There is also a very large number of Canadians living and working in the United States, and any of them might decide to come home and carry on with life here.

What I tell my clients

I am not telling you that house prices in Canada go up because Mr. Trump won. That is not how this works. What experience shows is that when attention turns to the northern border, investment can follow, and when investment follows we can see prices grow. We have to wait and see which policies actually arrive and how they land on life here. If you are deciding whether to buy or sell in the Toronto area, decide on your own numbers and your own timeline, not on a headline from Washington. Fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation, and we can go through your situation together. Stay well and take care.