Based on Moe’s video of April 16, 2024. For this month’s numbers, see GTA Housing Market Today.
این مقاله به فارسیRead in FarsiIn March 2024, data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board showed the benchmark price of a typical Greater Toronto Area home up 1.8% from February 2024, about $20,000, reaching $1,113,600. Sales that same month were the weakest March since 2009. Lower fixed mortgage rates, not a shortage of listings, pushed those prices up.
I am Moe Asgarian, a broker with RE/MAX in Toronto, and below I put the March 2024 numbers next to what my team and I were seeing in our own deals that spring. The March 2024 statistics show again how much this market depends on interest rates and credit rather than on the number of houses for sale.
Why GTA Prices Rose in March 2024
The March 2024 figures from TRREB showed home prices higher, and the reason was not scarce supply. Buyers were simply in a better position than they had been. Ahead of March 2024 the banks had already brought their fixed mortgage rates down, because the expectation was that the Bank of Canada would start cutting its policy rate before long.
The banks moved first, in other words. By March 2024 they were also giving deeper discounts on variable rate mortgages. All of that lets a buyer qualify for a larger loan and carry a more comfortable payment, and credit conditions like those show up in prices within weeks. That is the mechanism behind almost every turn this market has made.
Benchmark and Median Prices in the GTA, March 2024
The benchmark home, meaning the typical home rather than any single sale, rose 1.8% across the Greater Toronto Area in March 2024. That is roughly $20,000 inside one month, and it put the benchmark at $1,113,600 as of the March 2024 data. Month over month, that is a large move.
Year over year the picture was much calmer. Set against March 2023, the benchmark price in March 2024 was up only about $3,400, so annual growth was still held in check even with that jump in the month. The median price, the level where half the homes sold for less and half for more, was $970,000 in February 2024 and $977,000 in March 2024, a gain of $7,000 over the month.
Sales: The Weakest March Since 2009
While prices climbed, activity did not. Sales across the GTA fell in March 2024 compared with February 2024, and the month's total was 6,560 homes. That made March 2024 the weakest March for sales since 2009.
The long run of March figures is worth holding in mind. In 2009, at the worst of the financial crisis, March sales were very low. They recovered after that, settled into a normal rise and fall, then spiked strangely in March 2021 when interest rates were at the bottom. Since that 2021 peak, sales have drifted down, and March 2024 sat at the quiet end of the range.
New Listings and Months of Inventory
More owners put their homes on the market. New listings across the GTA were up 15.1% in March 2024 and passed 13,000 for the month. Months of inventory, which is how long the standing supply would last at the current pace of selling, was 2.4 in February 2024 and 2.5 in March 2024.
That extra supply changed the relationship between sales and listings, and by March 2024 the GTA looked close to a balanced market. Put the price data and the sales data side by side and the tilt, compared with a year earlier, had moved slightly toward buyers. The emphasis matters: balanced overall as of March 2024, leaning a little to the buyer's side.
What a Balanced Market Meant for Buyers in Newmarket and Aurora
For a buyer, a balanced market with a small tilt means two practical things. There are more properties to choose from, and there is room to put better conditions into an offer instead of waiving everything to win. In the two or three months leading up to March 2024, my own experience was that you could genuinely find good homes in the GTA on those terms.
Newmarket, Aurora and other popular areas were the clearest examples as of the spring of 2024, with houses available at real discounts rather than theoretical ones. Spring usually brings more listings, so the choice widens again, and that is the moment to make a considered decision instead of a fast one. My team and I keep a list of properties worth buying or investing in, and if you want help reading your own corner of the market, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did GTA home prices rise in March 2024?
TRREB data for March 2024 put the benchmark price of a typical Greater Toronto Area home at $1,113,600, up 1.8% or roughly $20,000 from February 2024. Measured against March 2023, the benchmark was up only about $3,400, so annual growth was still contained.
Why did GTA prices go up in March 2024 when sales were weak?
Prices rose because buyers could borrow more, not because listings were scarce. By March 2024 banks had already cut their fixed mortgage rates ahead of expected Bank of Canada cuts and were offering deeper discounts on variable rates. Sales still came in at 6,560 for March 2024, the weakest March since 2009.
Was the GTA a buyer's market in March 2024?
It was close to balanced with a small tilt toward buyers. Months of inventory stood at 2.5 in March 2024 against 2.4 in February 2024, and new listings were up 15.1% past 13,000 for the month, which gave buyers more choice and more room to attach conditions to an offer.