The GTA Housing Market in August 2024: What the First Rate Cuts Did

As of August 2024, the Bank of Canada's first rate cuts had not turned the Greater Toronto Area housing market around. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported 4,975 sales in August 2024, down 5.3% from August 2023, with 12,547 new listings, up about 1.5% year over year. The average selling price in August 2024 was near $1,074,000, roughly 0.8% below August 2023.

I am Moe Asgarian, a Toronto broker with RE/MAX, and a monthly read of the board's numbers is something I do for my own clients before I write it up here. In August 2024 the gap between what the report said and what my team was actually closing was the interesting part.

What the August 2024 numbers said about GTA supply

The shape of August 2024 was a well supplied market. Sales were down from August 2023 while new listings were up from August 2023, and that combination is what keeps buyers from having to fight each other. Measured month to month, sales in August 2024 were slightly higher than in July 2024, while new listings in August 2024 came in slightly lower than in July 2024. That is a small shift, not a turn. The board's own read in August 2024 was that falling borrowing costs would keep improving buying power, especially for anyone carrying a variable rate mortgage, and that as mortgage rates continued to come down through 2024 and 2025, first-time buyers would get more active, mostly in the condo and apartment segment.

Why the benchmark price and the average price moved differently

Two price figures from August 2024 point in different directions, and both of them are right. The composite benchmark price in August 2024 was down 4.6% from August 2023. The average selling price in August 2024 was down only about 0.8% from August 2023, finishing near $1,074,000. The reason is mix. More detached houses sold in August 2024 than in August 2023, and detached is the expensive end of the market, so a heavier detached month lifts the average even when values are soft. Had that same month leaned toward condos, the average would have printed lower. This is why I tell clients to read the benchmark when they want to know what happened to value, and to treat the average as a description of what happened to sell. Month to month, the average selling price in August 2024 was also below July 2024.

What August 2024 looked like in my own deals

August is the quiet month in this business, so our own count is worth putting on the table. In August 2024 my team got four of our buyers into homes, sold two of our own listings, and placed good tenants for four more of our landlord clients. The rental number is the one that stands out. Four tenant placements in a single August is well beyond what that month normally produces for us, and it was not a coincidence.

Why so many Toronto sellers became landlords

Here is where those rentals came from. Through the summer of 2024 a lot of owners looked at what the market was offering, decided it was not the price they wanted, and recognised that nothing was forcing them to sell. So they switched strategy. The house came off the sale market, an annual lease went on it, and the plan became to come back for their number next year. With borrowing costs falling, that is a defensible bet rather than a stubborn one. A seller who can wait is making a judgement that the market a year out will treat sellers better than the one in front of them, and in August 2024 several of our own clients made exactly that call.

What falling rates mean for GTA condo buyers and investors

Strip August 2024 down and two things were moving at once: house prices were easing month to month, and mortgages were getting cheaper month to month on both fixed and variable terms. Those two together pull buyers and sellers back in, which is why I expected sales counts to grow through the rest of 2024 and into 2025. As of September 2024 there were forecasts putting the policy rate below 3%, around 2.5%, by the end of 2025. My own call on condos had been that prices would not move much, and the monthly reports through 2024 kept proving it, for a plain reason: there is a great deal of condo supply on the market, and that supply holds prices down even as borrowing gets cheaper. For a first-time buyer, for someone upgrading, and for an investor, a soft price with a falling payment is the window, not the warning.

If you are weighing a purchase, an upgrade or an investment anywhere in the Greater Toronto Area and you want a straight read on where your own property sits, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation with me and my team. Stay well and take care.