GTA Home Sales Rose in September 2024 While Prices Eased

In September 2024 the Greater Toronto Area housing market finally moved. TRREB reported 4,996 sales for the month, 8.5 percent more than in September 2023 and 3.3 percent more than in August 2024, while the average selling price slipped about 1 percent from a year earlier to $1,107,291. Lower interest rates and slightly softer prices brought buyers back.

I am Moe Asgarian, a broker with RE/MAX in Toronto. These are the official Toronto Regional Real Estate Board numbers for September 2024, read the way I read them for my own clients, including the parts that are less flattering than the headline.

Sales in the Greater Toronto Area rose in September 2024

After several months in which the number of homes sold in the Greater Toronto Area barely changed, September 2024 broke the pattern. There were 4,996 sales in the month, up 8.5 percent from September 2023 and up 3.3 percent from August 2024. The main reason, as I see it, is that buyers were stepping into a market where the numbers had become more reasonable and there were decent options to consider.

This is the pattern we had been watching all through 2024: with every cut to the policy rate, more GTA households can qualify to buy, and the figures for September 2024 showed more first-time buyers in particular coming in as rates came down. It is worth remembering how dependent this market is on decisions made by the federal and provincial governments. Over a few months you can watch the policy show up in the sales count.

Prices eased while sales climbed

TRREB reported that the average home selling price in the Toronto region in September 2024 was about 1 percent lower than in September 2023, at $1,107,291. The board's other price indicators declined as well that month. So the extra sales came in a month when prices had come down a little and lower borrowing costs had made plenty of people keen to get into the market.

One caution about reading these comparisons. We are comparing September 2024 with September 2023, and September is not a historically quiet month, so this is not a case of a weak base flattering the numbers. The year over year figures for September 2024 are worth taking seriously.

New listings grew faster than sales, and homes took longer to sell

The most important thing in the September 2024 report is not the sales count. New listings rose faster than sales did, up 10.5 percent from a year earlier. In practice that means the ratio of sales to new listings in September 2024 was unchanged from September 2023, even though sales went up. Supply kept pace with the new demand.

The time it takes to sell tells the same story. In September 2024 that measure was 43.3 percent higher than a year earlier, and a home was taking about 43 days on average to sell. If you are a seller, that is the number to plan around: the market is busier than it was, and it is also slower than it was.

Houses up 10.5 percent, condos up 0.8 percent

The recovery in sales was not shared evenly. In September 2024 sales of all house types were up 10.5 percent from September 2023, while the condo market stayed weak and grew only 0.8 percent. That gap is the single most useful line in the report for anyone choosing between the two.

And while the September 2024 numbers were better than September 2023, sales were still well below their own historical average, and I did not expect that to change before the end of 2024. The Bank of Canada had started cutting, but buying a home in Toronto in late 2024 was still not affordable for a great many buyers. Condo investors had little confidence in that market. There was one more worry on top of all of it, which was the poor state of the job market. Lower rates genuinely help and they were improving things, but the wider economy was not in good enough shape in 2024 to expect the market to return to its peak days.

The mortgage rules that took effect on December 15, 2024

First-time buyers had a fresh reason to look, and that was the mortgage rule change due to take effect on December 15, 2024. In short, a first-time buyer putting down less than 20 percent could use a 30-year amortization on any home, whatever type it was and whether it was new or older, instead of the shorter amortization that applied before. The monthly payment comes down as a result.

The cap on insured mortgages, the ones where the buyer puts down less than 20 percent, was also raised ahead of that date. Between the two changes, part of the first-time buyer market got real help in late 2024. It is another reminder of how much of this market runs on federal policy rather than on local conditions.

GTA numbers are not York Region or Durham numbers

One last point, and I say it every month. When I and other agents discuss the monthly real estate statistics, we are talking about the Greater Toronto Area as a whole. If you plan to buy or sell in a particular place, say somewhere in York Region or Durham Region or another city, you need to know that the numbers for that city can look very different from what is happening across the GTA. The September 2024 average of $1,107,291 is an average across a huge and uneven region, and no single home is priced by it.

If you have a question or you want advice on a specific neighbourhood, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation and I will go through your numbers with you. Stay well and take care.