Based on Moe’s video of February 27, 2025. For this month’s numbers, see GTA Housing Market Today.
این مقاله به فارسیRead in FarsiIn January 2025 the Greater Toronto Area market came back faster than the end of 2024, but the extra activity did very little to sale prices. The average price was $1,040,000, about 1.5% above January 2024. Sales were around 8% lower than a year earlier, while new listings were nearly 50% higher. Listings returned to the market faster than usual.
I am Moe Asgarian, a senior real estate broker in Toronto and ranked 47th worldwide inside RE/MAX. These are the January 2025 numbers as I read them for my own clients in February 2025, and as always I care more about what the figures mean for a decision than about the headline.
Two January 2025 Shifts: Cheaper Money and a Bigger Region
Two things happened in January 2025 that matter more than any single statistic. The first was another interest rate cut. The policy rate reached 3%, which meant that in February 2025 you could get a mortgage somewhere around 4% to 4.5%. The headline is simple: borrowing was cheaper than it was the year before, and that changes what a family can afford.
The second was population. The figure announced in January 2025 put the Greater Toronto Area above 7 million people. Yes, immigration policy is getting stricter. But keep in mind that as of January 2025, between 20% and 25% of everyone living in Canada lived in the GTA, so the demand side of housing here does not simply switch off.
What Sold in January 2025, and How Fast
Condos were half of the month. In January 2025, 50% of sales were condos, 26% were detached homes, 10% were semi-detached, and the rest were other property types such as townhouses. For a month that is usually quiet, that is a lot of condo turnover.
The average time to sell in January 2025 was 41 days, although the median, which gives a truer picture of the market, was 30 days. Semi-detached homes were the standout in January 2025: they took only 14 days on average that month, and on average they sold for more than their original asking price. That did not surprise me, and I had pointed at this segment before.
The Price Bands Doing the Work
An important question right now is which price range sold the most homes. By number of deals, the busiest band in January 2025 was $550,000 to $600,000. These are usually one-bedroom apartments, and the buyers are end users.
The interesting part sits above it. The $1 million to $1.5 million band showed noticeable growth in January 2025, and in three or four of my forecasts over the previous months I had pointed to the importance of that band. In the detached market most deals in January 2025 landed between $1 million and $1.25 million. In semi-detached, the strongest demand was again $1 million to $1.5 million.
That sets up the squeeze I keep describing. The worry is that a large number of cheap condos and a large number of expensive big homes stay sitting in the market, while in the middle there is fierce competition for the mid-priced home, the $1 million to $1.5 million house, which is exactly where the January 2025 figures showed competition building.
What TRREB Expected for the Rest of 2025
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board forecast published around the January 2025 figures put roughly 76,000 home sales for the year, 12.4% more than 2024. The mechanism behind that number is simple: lower rates make homes reachable for a larger share of buyers. In the same 2025 forecast, the average price sits about 2.6% above 2024, with single family homes carrying most of that increase.
Overall, the January 2025 statistics show prices up from the year before at roughly the pace of inflation, and the GTA average selling price broadly rising. With rates coming down, the start of 2025 was a more dynamic market than the end of 2024, and it looks like that continues through the year. Interest rates are one of the main levers of a boom or a slowdown in housing. Just never forget why rates fall in the first place: the economy is in poor shape, and over the long run a poor economy is not good for any market, housing included.
Why Rents Came Off Their Peak
Look at the rental market in early 2025 and you see rents coming down. The main reason is lower interest rates. A landlord with a variable rate mortgage pays less every month, so the cost of carrying a condo fell, and that showed up in asking rents. It does not mean Toronto is a cheap city to rent in. What happened is that rents came off the peak that high rates had built. Renting is still a serious market here and a significant share of all housing in Toronto and the GTA.
Pre-Construction Is Where the Real Crisis Is
The real crisis as of early 2025 is in pre-construction. Go and look up the people who spent the last two or three years posting stories on social media about how strong and healthy the pre-construction market was. A large share of those investments has turned into a complete failure. There were good projects too, but for years I have been explaining why buying in the resale market beats buying pre-construction in a situation like this.
The numbers show closing dates arriving while the owners either do not want to close or cannot. That has opened a real market in assignments, which is work we are good at, and over the past two or three months we closed deals there. Many people are ready to sell a finished condo at a loss just to get out from under it.
If you ask me, as of February 2025 pre-construction will not be a strong market for at least three years from that point. Do not lose your money in those pre-construction projects. Come and buy a good finished condo or townhouse at the right price instead. I am talking about the two or three years following early 2025 here. The long term prediction is that a time will come when these projects have value again and investing in them makes sense.
If you want to work out which price band and which type of property fits your own plan, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation with our team. Stay well and take care.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the average GTA home price in January 2025?
The average selling price across the Greater Toronto Area in January 2025 was $1,040,000, roughly 1.5% higher than January 2024. Year over year, prices in the region moved up at about the pace of inflation, so the big jump in activity that month did not translate into a big jump in prices.
What mortgage rate could a GTA buyer get in February 2025?
After the January 2025 rate cut the policy rate reached 3%, which meant that in February 2025 a buyer could get a mortgage at roughly 4% to 4.5%. The practical point is that borrowing was cheaper than it had been a year earlier, and that is what brought end users back into the market.
Which GTA price range was busiest in January 2025?
By number of deals the busiest band in January 2025 was $550,000 to $600,000, which is mostly one-bedroom apartments bought by end users. The $1 million to $1.5 million band also grew noticeably that month, and it was the band where detached and semi-detached demand concentrated.