December 2024 GTA Market Update: More Sales, Softer Condo Prices

Reviewing the December 2024 numbers, the market was traditionally expected to be quieter than the months before it, and it was, but the slowdown came in milder than expectations. Across Toronto, sales of all home types in 2024 reached 67,610 homes against 65,877 in 2023, up 2.5%, while the 2024 average price slipped about 1% to $1,117,000, pulled down by condos.

I am Moe Asgarian, a senior real estate broker in Toronto and ranked 47th worldwide inside RE/MAX. This is my read of the December 2024 figures for Toronto and the GTA, including areas the Iranian community here follows closely, such as Richmond Hill and Aurora.

Toronto Sales Rose in 2024 While the Average Price Slipped

Even though the Toronto market, and the condo segment in particular, felt slow and sluggish through 2024, the statistics show the number of purchases and sales went up. From that angle we lived through a better market than it felt like. Sales of all home types in Toronto were 2.5% higher in 2024 than in 2023: 65,877 homes in 2023 against 67,610 homes in 2024.

The average price went the other way. Reviewing the December 2024 data, the average home price in the Toronto region came down over the course of 2024, averaging $1,117,000, roughly 1% below the year before. The main reason was the drop in condo prices.

Condos Dragged the Average Down

A large increase in condo supply met a noticeable drop in demand for buying condos. That left a lot of listings sitting in the market, and all of it pulled the average condo price in Toronto down through 2024. On average we faced a price drop of a little over 2% in condos: the 2023 average was $717,000 and in 2024 it was $702,000.

This is the split I pointed to in different updates all through 2024. In some parts of the market, detached homes for example, we saw prices increase. In the condo segment we experienced a decrease. One market, two very different stories.

Rate Cuts Handed Buyers the Upper Hand in December 2024

TRREB, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, data for December 2024 shows that after the interest rate cuts, in a month that is traditionally a quiet month, buyers' power to negotiate increased and the number of purchases and sales rose. The statistics show that bargaining power was especially noticeable in the condo segment, where buyers were able to buy condos at lower prices.

New listings are part of the same story. The 2024 figures show a notable 16.4% growth in new listings. That growth did two things at once: it raised buyers' power, and it acted as the pressure that kept home prices flat instead of letting them run up. Looking at the shape of the whole year, high interest rates were the main cause of the slow market through the first half of 2024, and gradually, as rates came down, the number of purchases and sales rose.

December 2024 by Home Type Across the GTA

The number of semi-detached homes traded in December 2024 was 5.8% lower than in November. Townhouses and condos went the other way in December 2024 compared to November 2024, rising 5.8% and 2.3%. Taken across the whole of 2024, buying and selling was generally stronger for detached and semi-detached homes.

Across the GTA as a whole, the total count of sales of all home types came down somewhat in 2024, and the main reason was again the condo market numbers. That is the pattern worth remembering about this year: the freehold side held up, and the condo side set the direction of the headline figures.

Aurora and Richmond Hill in December 2024

In Aurora the average price in December 2024 was 16% higher than the same month a year earlier, reaching $1,489,000, and the average days on market there was 33 days. That is a very different market from the downtown condo picture in the same month.

In Richmond Hill the average price in December 2024 was 2% above December 2023. In Richmond Hill, the average townhouse price had risen 5% over the three years ending December 2024. These are the areas the Iranian community in the GTA asks me about most often, and they are also where the gap between freehold and condo performance showed up most clearly at the end of 2024.

What the 2024 Numbers Set Up for 2025

The statistics also show that first-time buyers held back through 2024 and were waiting for interest rates to come down further in 2025 before entering the housing market. We know first-time buyers usually enter by buying a cheaper condo, so the fact that they stayed out in 2024 had a large effect on the slowdown in the condo market.

Canadian economic analysts forecast that if the downward trend in interest rates continues through 2025 and prices do not change much from where they had been over the previous months, the number of purchases and sales will certainly rise again and many people will become willing to enter this market.

My colleagues and I at Team Asgarian track the different Toronto and GTA market statistics every month, and honestly, one of the things I do best is tell our clients what not to invest in. There are many options in the market, and at first glance plenty of them feel like something you should buy and invest in. What we try to do is use the real numbers and the experience we have to work out when the right time is for the right type of property, so our clients get the best service we can give.

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