Toronto's February 2025 Housing Numbers: Fewer Sales, Far More Listings

February 2025 was a weak month for the Toronto housing market. Sales in February 2025 were down about 27% from February 2024, the average selling price came in 2.2% below the February 2024 average of $1,084,547, and active inventory in the month jumped 76% to 19,536 homes. Buyers had more choice and less competition than they had seen in years.

I am Moe Asgarian, a Principal Real Estate Broker with RE/MAX in Toronto, ranked #47 worldwide and in the top 1% in Canada, and in February 2025 I watched this play out on my own listings. Here is what the numbers said, and what was sitting behind them.

February 2025 Sales: Toronto Down 27%, Vancouver Down 11.7%

Home sales in Toronto fell about 27% in February 2025 compared with February 2024, and Vancouver was down 11.7% over the same stretch. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board counted 4,037 sales in February 2025, against 5,562 in February 2024. Keep in mind that February 2024 was not a strong month either, so this decline was measured against an already quiet base. Across the wider GTA the February 2025 drop was not even by housing type. On that breakdown, detached sales were down about 31%, townhouses about 30%, semi detached about 22%, and condominiums about 22%.

Prices in February 2025: Average Down 2.2%, Benchmark Down 1.8%

The average selling price in February 2025 came in 2.2% below the February 2024 average of $1,084,547. The composite benchmark price in February 2025, which tracks what a typical home is worth rather than what the mix of homes that happened to sell cost, was down 1.8% year over year. On paper those are modest declines. What they do not show is the negotiating room that opened up underneath them, and in February 2025 that room was wider than the headline percentages suggested.

Inventory in February 2025: 19,536 Homes for Sale, Up 76%

The one number that went up was supply. In February 2025 there were 12,066 new listings, more than 5% above February 2024. More striking was total active inventory in February 2025, which grew 76% year over year to 19,536 homes. That is the single most important line in the February 2025 report. Sellers were competing with each other rather than with a lineup of buyers, and that is a different market from the one most people still had in their heads.

Why Buyers Stayed on the Sidelines

Two things were holding the market back in February 2025. The first is simple: homes in Toronto are still expensive. The second was a turbulent economy. Plenty of families in Toronto wanted to buy, but in February 2025 prices were still high, interest rates were still elevated compared with a few years earlier, and the monthly payment was out of reach for many of them. On top of that sat the tariff fight and the volatility coming out of Washington. This is a point I have made before, and February 2025 proved it. Even if no tariff is ever actually applied, that insecurity changes what a buyer is willing to sign.

Two Toronto Reasons the Month Looked Worse

There were two local factors in February 2025 that a year over year comparison hides. The first was the Ontario provincial election held that month. The whole month was signs, ads, and noise, and if you look back at earlier election months, sales tend to come in below the same month in previous years. The second was the weather. The snow Toronto got in February 2025 was unlike anything in recent years, both in volume and in how often it came, and it shut large parts of the city down. In my own week to week work there were four or five days in February 2025 when getting around was close to impossible, and a buyer has to be able to drive to a showing before they can fall for a house.

Why First Time Buyers Had an Opening in 2025

Here is the read I had at the time. Two things could move buyers off the fence: falling bank interest rates, and the sheer number of good homes available at a real discount in February 2025. As of March 2025 I thought first time buyers had a strong chance that year to make a very good purchase, and I expected a large share of 2025's buyers to be first timers, partly because they could secure a better interest rate. Rent, mortgage payments, and carrying costs were moving closer together in early 2025, and once they meet you are in a position to pay down your own home instead of someone else's.

There was a political reset in the background as well. By March 2025 Trudeau was no longer prime minister, and polling at the time pointed to a Conservative government if an election were held then. The hope in March 2025 was that the two countries would land a durable deal on tariffs and that the second half of 2025 would be calmer. What interest rates did next would decide how many people acted on all that choice sitting in the market.

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