Why I'm Still Hopeful About the Condo Market

The preconstruction condo market in Toronto is not in good shape right now, and you have probably noticed it yourself. This is not new. My team and I have been writing about it for a while. But the state of things has made a lot of people nervous about the condo market as a whole. So the real question is this: should we actually be worried?

I am Moe Asgarian, Principal Real Estate Broker in Toronto, ranked 47th at RE/MAX worldwide. A big part of what I follow is the condo market, because I know many of you track it just as closely.

What is really happening in preconstruction

A lot of projects are getting cancelled. Investors have left the market. Almost anyone who bought a preconstruction condo in Toronto between 2021 and 2022 is now hitting their closing date, and most of them are struggling to close. Many will lose money on the deal. How long does this last? The honest answer is that nobody knows. What we do know is that right now there are roughly 8,000 condos for sale in Toronto, and there are not enough buyers for them.

The numbers behind the slowdown

The Urbanation report for the second quarter of 2025 tells the story. Only 3 preconstruction projects reached completion, 891 units in total. Against that, 4 projects with 719 units were cancelled. Since 2024, 20 condo projects have been cancelled. Right now there are about 24,000 unsold units that will probably never get built.

Why supply could dry up

In 2025 about 31,000 units are set to be handed over to people who bought two or three years ago, and another 18,000 are ready for 2026. So a huge number of units are being delivered right now. But from 2027 to 2030 there is probably almost nothing coming. A condo project cannot be built overnight. On average it takes three to four years from the moment the need appears until a project is finished. Put those two facts together and we could be looking at a real supply crunch about five years out.

Short term versus medium term

My read is simple. In the short term the market is not in a good spot. In the medium term, say toward 2030, there is a strong chance demand climbs back and the picture looks very different. If you are buying to hold, that gap matters more than this year's headlines.

Why condos still make sense for many buyers

This is not only about profit and loss. For a lot of people a condo is the right choice for how they want to live. First-time buyers, investors, and retirees all find something in it. For many Iranian families arriving in Toronto, a condo is often the first and best option. Sometimes one member of the family goes back to Iran to work and the household plans around that income, and a condo makes daily life easier. The access, the amenities, and the lifestyle pull a certain group of buyers toward condos no matter what the profit numbers say. That demand does not disappear.

My colleagues and I at Team Asgarian study the Toronto condo market constantly, and even in a market like this we have closed strong deals for our clients. If you want to talk it through, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.