Toronto's Condo Market in Summer 2025: The Numbers and Your Strategy

The Toronto condo market is in the news every month, and rightly so. Not a day goes by that I'm not talking with a client about condos and where the market is headed, and I don't blame buyers or sellers for being anxious. The cost of ownership keeps climbing, and with prices falling, everyone is on edge.

I'm Moe Asgarian, a Principal Real Estate Broker in Toronto, ranked #47 worldwide at RE/MAX and in the top 1% in Canada. Let's look at where the condo market sits in early summer 2025 and what to watch so you come out ahead.

Why housing is a 5 to 10 year hold

There is barely a sentence I've repeated more often. Buying a home in Toronto is a five to ten year investment. If you're hoping to buy a condo or house and flip it within a year for a big profit, you'd have to be genuinely lucky. A condo appreciates over several years, and you can earn income by renting it out. But if you're buying with a sudden exit in mind, housing is not a good investment to jump in and out of. The market has always had ups and downs, and if you're forced to pull your money out at a set time, you might hit a low point. So in the market we're seeing right now, holding is the right call. The exception is if you want to trade a $700,000 condo up to a home over $1 million and take advantage of the discounts on those higher-priced homes, that's a different story. But purely as an investment, this is a time to hold and to sit tight. This is a cycle that has repeated many times, and it's nothing new or strange. So if you're planning to sell but you don't need to, or it isn't a priority, now is not the right time, and you're better off holding.

Who is actually buying right now

The second point follows from the first: pay attention to who the buyers are. Who is purchasing in this market? The same families who are going to move into a home and have no plan to sell or change it for years. That's natural. Right now, if someone buys a condo as an investment, they can't earn income against these high mortgage costs. And it doesn't look like condo prices will climb much by year end. So neither first-time buyers nor investors have much motivation to jump in, which leaves the families who want a condo to live in. That's the core buyer group.

Who is selling, and your negotiating power

On the other side, the sellers are the investors from the COVID era. They bought condos, then rates suddenly jumped, holding costs rose, and they have no idea when they'll be able to sell at a good price. Why does knowing this matter? Because when you know who you're buying from, you also know your bargaining power. When an owner just wants out from under their apartment, the right strategy lets you push harder and win a very good discount. It's not that selling is easy for them. They'd genuinely love to hold as long as they can, but the math only stretches so far. For many investors, holding is simply no longer possible. Some of you have written that I always tell people to buy condos. Let me say it again clearly: I'm talking about investment, buying a condo with your money and renting it out. I'm not talking about end users, families, and first-time buyers. Just as I warned last year against buying pre-construction projects and said don't, I'm now telling investors not to do this either. For families and end users, it's a different conversation. There's also another group of sellers, people with older condos they bought maybe 20 years ago, who have made their profit and are looking for peace of mind.

The trust factor

One important factor to read the market by is the level of trust people have in Canada's economy and financial markets. What I'm sensing is that trust is lower than it used to be. And low trust means people hold back and don't act. Rates have come down, yes, but confidence hasn't returned the way it was. The other day I came across an analysis from my good friend and colleague Tom Storey. Tom focuses mostly on the city of Toronto, and our working relationship goes back several years, to when Tom started sending me a lot of assignment sellers so I could sell their pre-construction condos. Tom was explaining how condos in Toronto are selling based on their type, and that really helps us understand buyer behavior and mindset.

The numbers by unit type

Tom found that in the past month about 700 condos were listed for sale in the city of Toronto. Keep in mind, this is the city itself, and over four weeks the figures may have shifted a few percent. Of those, only 86 sold, which means inventory sits at 8 months and only about 12% of listings sold and closed. But the types behave very differently. Studios, the units with no bedroom, sometimes called bachelor units, have almost no buyers: 216 were listed and 20 sold. Among one-bedrooms, only 161 of around 1,500 sold, so months of inventory for one-bedrooms is about 9.5, a lot of supply with few buyers. One-plus-one, or dens, are a little better, with 212 sold, about 8.2 months of inventory. The most that sold in this quiet market were two-bedrooms, with 279 sold and inventory down to 7.3 months. Note that it's still a buyer's market, but the picture is much better than one-bedroom or studio condos. Two-bedrooms and dens sold in smaller numbers partly because people would rather move to a townhouse. So the data underlines it again: today's buyers are end users looking for the best form of condo. If you're looking to sell or buy a condo in this market, my team and I can help you through it. Fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation so we can talk and get to know each other better. Stay well and take care.