Toronto's February 2024 Housing Market: Who the Party Was Really For

In February 2024 the Toronto headlines said the party was back on. My read, as of that month: the party was real if you were selling a semi-detached house in a strong Toronto neighbourhood, quieter for detached, a small get-together for condos, and it had not started at all in pre-construction.

I am Moe Asgarian, a broker in Toronto, and I publish a market read every month, so let me start with a caution about the headline itself. One comparison number from a single month is not decisive data. February 2024 looked strong, and it was, but that strength was not spread evenly.

Who the Party Was For in February 2024

If you were selling a semi-detached house in a good City of Toronto neighbourhood in February 2024, the party was real and the guests were lined up at your door competing with each other. That month it was not unusual to see a property in Leslieville draw 40 offers, and months of inventory in that neighbourhood sat at one month. Detached was still a party, just a quieter one: homes were selling and prices were generally moving up. For a condo seller it was closer to a casual get-together, because in February 2024 the condo market was balanced, neither a buyers' market nor a sellers' market. In pre-construction the party had not started. A few guests had arrived, but you would want many more.

The February 2024 Numbers for the GTA

The year over year table is where the headlines came from. Sales in February 2024 came in at roughly 5,600, up from about 4,750 in February 2023, which is close to 18 percent more transactions; the figure most of the coverage ran with that month was 17 percent. New listings in February 2024 reached about 11,100, up from 8,530 in February 2023, an increase of 33.5 percent. Active listings in February 2024 were 15 percent higher than a year earlier, and the average price was up 1.1 percent on that same year over year comparison. Month to month, prices rose about 8 percent from January 2024 to February 2024, which tells you there was real optimism in the market. Read the figures together, though, and the story is not only demand: sales went up and inventory went up.

Why a January to February Jump Is Normal

Put the February 2024 jump next to the rate history and it looks less dramatic. In 2019 the policy rate came down and average prices climbed month after month to a peak. In March 2022 rates began rising, and prices began falling from exactly that point, with rates climbing all the way to the 5 percent level they stood at in early 2024. Average prices bottomed in January 2023, recovered over the first months of that year, then slid again as rates went up. The market touched its average price low twice and both lows landed in January, which is predictable, because very few people buy or sell in January. Then February picks up, March carries on, and from June and July to the end of the year average prices come back down. 2018 did that. 2019 did that. It is seasonality, not a signal that the market will run hard all year.

Semi-Detached, Detached and Condo Prices in the City of Toronto

The four month table, covering the last two months of 2023 and the first two of 2024, tells you more than any year over year line, because it shows the trend month by month. The average semi-detached price in the City of Toronto was 1,270,000 dollars in November 2023. December 2023 was normal, January 2024 ticked up a little, and from January to February 2024 there was a very large jump. Detached moved differently: a big drop from December 2023 to January 2024, then a jump again in February 2024, with the average detached price in the City of Toronto at 1,657,000 dollars that month. The fair question is who pays that. The answer is owners of many years who are now selling, people who waited five to seven years and watched their home appreciate, households with a lot of equity and often two incomes. These are not first-time buyers. In February 2024 first-time buyers were shopping condos and other products with lower average prices.

As of February 2024, condos accounted for 60 percent of all housing sales in Toronto, so the segment matters even to people who will never buy one. Over the previous year the condo market came down, and from July to December 2023 the average condo price fell every single month. In January 2024 it stopped falling, and in February 2024 it finally grew a little, from 709,000 dollars to 726,000 dollars. It is natural to feel that condos found some life again. Just remember that in February 2024 this was a balanced market, and that condos differ building to building, area to area, project to project. In February 2024, in some buildings seven or eight units were listed at the same time, so your real competition was inside your own building. If you want to be the one that sells, your unit has to be in the best condition it can be, and you have to know how your neighbourhood is actually performing.

What I Tell Buyers and Sellers

Whatever you decide, decide on data and keep emotion out of it. Do not buy out of fear. Seeing semi-detached homes go to multiple offers in one neighbourhood is not a reason to buy a semi-detached at any cost because you are afraid the window will close. Plenty of the people who bought out of that fear in 2021 and 2022 did not necessarily make good purchases. Buy with logic, have a strategy, know exactly what you are trying to do. On rates, the Bank of Canada had signalled by early 2024 that a cut was not coming soon and that it might be a summer event; before that the conversation had been about March and April. Based on that signal and on what economists were publishing, my view in March 2024 was that we would see an average price change of roughly 3 to 5 percent across home types that year, most of it in freehold, meaning detached, semi-detached and townhouses with no monthly maintenance fee, and less of it in condos. None of us is a fortune teller. But with the cost of living and buying power where they were in early 2024, a wild jump was not the thing to plan around.

Every one of these groups needs its own scenario, because the right move depends on whether you are buying or selling, what you own and what you are looking for. If you want to know what this market means for your own street, your own building or your own price point, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.