Canada's Job Market, Housing and GDP in June 2025: What It Means for Toronto

As of June 11, 2025, three reports set the tone for the Toronto housing market. Canada's unemployment rate had risen to 6.9% in April 2025, RBC's economists were telling investors not to expect a short term recovery after Toronto prices fell about 4.5% since December 2024, and GDP per capita dropped roughly 1.4% in 2024.

I am Moe Asgarian, a Toronto real estate broker with RE/MAX, and I read reports like these the way my clients do, as the backdrop to a decision they are about to make. Here is what each of the three said in June 2025, and what the three of them say together.

Canada's Job Market Is Pulling Away From the United States

The labour markets of Canada and the United States usually move at the same time and in the same direction. They rarely split. A BMO analysis published ahead of June 2025 says that is exactly what is happening now, and it warns that the gap in employment conditions between the two countries is the widest it has been in 25 years. Canada's unemployment rate moved higher in April 2025 and reached 6.9%, above where it sat before the pandemic. The American rate at the time was 4.2%, which puts Canada 2.7 points behind. Part of that difference comes from how the two countries count unemployment, and even after you account for it Canada is still about 1.7 points worse off. When the two separate like this, what usually follows is a weaker Canadian dollar.

Why the Weakness Is Not Only About the Trade War

The trade war is in the picture, and the report does not pretend otherwise. But it is clear that the trade war is not the whole story, because the data shows this gap existed before tariffs became a headline. Canada has not fixed its own structural problems. Productivity has been falling since 2019. The economy leans on slow growth, high debt sectors such as real estate and government administration. Private sector investment is weak, running at about one third of the American level as of that report. For anyone watching Toronto housing, those numbers matter. A market that depends on jobs and income growth cannot run far ahead of the economy sitting underneath it.

RBC: Toronto Is a Buyer's Market and Prices Have Further to Fall

The second report is RBC's read on Canadian housing, and in spring 2025 its economists told investors not to expect much from this market in the short term. The mechanism they describe is simple. Economic worry pushed sellers to put their homes up for sale, while buyers decided to wait for the situation to settle before making the largest purchase of their lives. Supply went up, demand came down, and prices cannot climb in that combination. RBC names Toronto as one of the markets most affected. Bargaining power has moved to buyers, and this is a buyer's market in the plain sense of the phrase. The report carries one encouraging note: the United States appeared uninterested in making the tariff fight more complicated, with no serious new threats for some time. On price, the bank's economists expected further declines in the short term. Toronto home prices were already down roughly 4.5% on average from December 2024 to June 2025, and their forecast was for prices to keep falling through 2025. The report covers other Canadian cities too, and it is worth seeing what those same economists expect of them.

GDP Per Capita Fell in 2024, Including in Ontario

The third report is the latest data from Statistics Canada, which shows GDP per capita down about 1.4% in 2024. GDP is the total value of the goods and services a country produces, and it is one of the most important economic measures any country has, because it tells you which way the country is heading. On its own, though, the headline figure can mislead. Sometimes it rises simply because the population grew. Divide it by the population and the number starts to mean something, which is why GDP per capita is the one to watch. In 2024 it was positive in only four provinces: Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan. The rest, Ontario included, were negative. Alberta stands out, because its GDP per capita is high in absolute terms but fell a long way in 2024. British Columbia and Ontario are the other two worth naming.

What This Means If You Are Buying or Selling in Toronto

Put the three reports side by side and you have the market that Toronto and GTA buyers and sellers were living in through June 2025. A soft job market, an economy producing less per person than the year before, and a housing market where the leverage sits with buyers. If you are buying, that is about as much of an advantage as this market has handed anyone in years, and the work goes into choosing the right property rather than racing someone for it. If you are selling, the price has to reflect the market as it stood in June 2025, not what your neighbour got a year earlier. What I tell my clients is to keep the headline separate from the decision. These reports describe the weather. Your own timeline, your financing and the specific property are what decide whether this is your moment.

If you want a straight read on what all of this means for your own purchase or sale in Toronto or the GTA, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation with my team. Stay well and take care.