Toronto Housing News, August 2024: Mortgage Arrears, Youth Jobs and a Missing Markham Agent

In August 2024 the Toronto housing news came down to three stories. Equifax put mortgage delinquency in Toronto at its highest level in eight years. BMO warned investors that unemployment among Canadians aged 15 to 24 had climbed to roughly 14%. And York Regional Police were searching for a Markham real estate agent missing since August 9, 2024.

I am Moe Asgarian, a Toronto broker with RE/MAX, and this is my monthly round-up of the news that actually moves the GTA market. The August 2024 edition has an uncomfortable item in it, and I went back and forth about including it before deciding that it mattered.

Equifax: more Canadians missing mortgage payments in early 2024

Equifax Canada, the credit reporting and credit scoring company, published a report covering the first quarter of 2024, and the finding was that a share of Canadians were struggling to make their loan payments. The report itself is careful to note that there have been worse periods in the past. What made it notable was the direction: missed mortgage payments in the first quarter of 2024 had risen sharply compared with the preceding few quarters. There is a reasonable hope attached, which is that falling interest rates gradually improve the picture. One more detail from the first quarter of 2024 is worth holding on to. The delinquency rate is not uniform across the country. Where homes are more expensive, the rate of people failing to keep up is higher, which is exactly what you would expect when the loan is larger relative to the income carrying it.

An unusual combination: weaker borrowers, stronger growth

One more piece of context from 2024 belongs beside the Equifax numbers. The International Monetary Fund was forecasting that Canada's economic growth would outpace the rest of the G7. Normally one of those two measures improves while the other slips. In 2024 both moved at once: the ability to keep up with mortgage payments was weakening while the economy was growing faster than comparable countries. Measured against what is expected of Canada, though, the economic situation was not a good one.

Toronto's mortgage delinquency rate at an eight-year high

Equifax published a parallel report on Toronto specifically, and the number there was worse. The mortgage delinquency rate in Toronto had reached its highest level in eight years. That comparison deserves a second look, because eight years earlier the rate was on the way down, as the market was improving. In 2024 there was no sign that the trend was heading back toward good conditions. Put precisely: the Toronto rate had doubled compared with the first half of 2023.

Mortgage debt in early 2024 was 41% bigger than in 2019

There is a measurement trap in all of this, and Equifax flagged it. When you compare today's loan numbers with those from five or ten years ago, you have to account for the fact that inflation and rising house prices mean people are borrowing far more. Equifax put a figure on it: comparing the first quarter of 2019, January through March, with January through March 2024, the volume of mortgage debt was 41% higher. So a rising delinquency rate is sitting on top of much larger loans. Both halves of that sentence matter, and I plan to come back to how Canada's mortgage market and its housing market fit together.

BMO's warning on youth unemployment

The Bank of Montreal published a report in 2024 telling investors to watch youth unemployment, and the numbers are blunt. Unemployment among Canadians aged 15 to 24 had climbed far beyond expectations, to roughly 14%, which is about one in seven young people ready to work, looking for work and unable to find it. The report also notes that the youth population itself is growing, so the problem widens from both sides. Part of the cause is that the pandemic's effect on businesses had still not worked through by 2024 and many had not fully recovered. The other part is the scale of labour arriving from abroad, on work permits and as international students with permission to work. The age group that normally fills general and lower-skill jobs before finishing college or university is competing with people prepared to do the same work for considerably less. The summer of 2024 showed it plainly: students who usually pick up seasonal work could not find it, and the complaints made the news, with the job market described as unsuitable even for high school students.

A Markham real estate agent missing since August 2024

The last item is not market news and it is not pleasant, but it was reported almost everywhere and it belongs in an honest round-up. York Regional Police reported that Anita Mui, a real estate agent in Markham, had been missing for several days. She left her home at 9:30 in the morning on August 9, 2024. Someone spoke with her by phone up to about an hour later, and after that there was nothing. Her car was found. There was speculation that it could turn out to be a homicide case, because a similar case had been seen in the same area. What happened was not known, and it was a matter of waiting for the police to say more. A personal note belongs here. We had the privilege of working with Anita Mui before this: in the summer of 2023 we bought a home from her for one of our clients in the Bayview Hill area. Wherever she is, I hope she is well and safe and back with her family soon.

If you have a question about the Toronto housing market, whether it is about buying, investing or selling, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation with me. Stay well and take care.