Based on Moe’s video of November 24, 2024. For this month’s numbers, see GTA Housing Market Today.
این مقاله به فارسیRead in FarsiThree stories mattered for Toronto housing in November 2024. Ottawa stopped the SDS and NSE study permit streams, which points to softer rental demand. Royal LePage's chief executive said Toronto is strong enough to grow in 2025. And a Toronto bidding war ended up on stage as a comedy.
I am Moe Asgarian, a broker with RE/MAX in Toronto. News like this reaches me as client questions about rent, resale and timing, so that is how I will take it, one story at a time.
Ottawa Ends the SDS and NSE Study Permit Streams
Canadian policymakers have been changing immigration policy quickly, and in November 2024 the target was students. The government announced that the Student Direct Stream and the Nigeria Student Express had been halted. Both had been in use for several years to approve study visas, and the idea behind them was to give extra attention to a set of specific markets.
Here is how the stream worked. You paid $150 to apply, you placed money in a guaranteed and fixed investment account, and you proved you could cover your basic needs on arrival. The program began in 2018 and expanded a great deal in 2019. It covered 14 countries, among them India, Pakistan, China and Brazil, while the Nigeria Student Express applied specifically to Nigeria. In practice about 80% of applications from students in India came through this route, so stopping it in November 2024 has a large effect on student arrivals from that country.
Why Fewer Students Could Cool Rental Demand
Ending a program like this leaves open questions. What replaces it? Infrastructure gets affected either way, and more importantly there are a large number of colleges and training centres that run their operations on projected student arrivals, and as of November 2024 it was unclear what happens to them.
The part that touches real estate directly is rental demand and the effect it has on that market. Fewer students arriving means fewer tenants competing for the same units. If you own a condo in Toronto or North York and your tenant pool has been students, that is the number to watch. This is also the honest question underneath the policy: whether bringing in that many students from all those countries was the right call, and whether the decision to stop it was thought through.
Royal LePage Sees Toronto and Vancouver Recovering in 2025
The second story came from Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage, in comments reported by the Toronto Star in November 2024. Traditionally the last weeks of the calendar year are when an estimate of the coming year gets published, and his read was optimistic. His view was that despite the challenges in this market, the infrastructure and the real estate industry in Toronto are strong and can show good growth in 2025.
He went further on why. Toronto and its housing market have a lot of potential, prices here are much lower than in Manhattan by comparison, and there is room for construction and growth. He pointed to recovery already visible in the Halifax, Montreal and Calgary markets, and predicted that in 2025 the Vancouver and Toronto markets would recover too. I am passing it on because it is a real source of optimism on the record in November 2024, not because a forecast is a guarantee.
A Toronto Bidding War Turned Into a Comedy
The third story is the lighter one, and it has a good connection to the Toronto housing market. A Toronto playwright found the experience of a bidding war interesting enough to write a comedy about it. The plot follows the last cheap house in the city of Toronto, a crowd of buyers, and a final day when it goes to the highest offer. It was playing in downtown Toronto until December 15, 2024. Anyone who has sat through an offer night here will recognise the material.
What I Make of the November 2024 News
Put the three together and they pull in different directions, which is normal. The study permit changes pull on the rental side, where a landlord in Willowdale or downtown should plan for a thinner tenant pool rather than an automatic rent increase. The Royal LePage forecast pulls the other way on the ownership side, and the stage comedy is a reminder that competition for the right house never really went away. What I tell clients is to pick the side of the market they are actually on and act on that one, instead of reacting to all three headlines at once.
If you want to go through what any of this means for your own plan to buy, sell or rent out in Toronto and the GTA, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation. Stay well and take care.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened to the SDS and NSE study permit programs in November 2024?
The Canadian government announced in November 2024 that both the Student Direct Stream and the Nigeria Student Express had been stopped. They had been used for several years to fast-track study permit approvals from particular markets, and no replacement program had been named at that point.
How could ending the SDS and NSE study permit streams affect Toronto rents?
The link runs through demand. The Student Direct Stream and the Nigeria Student Express brought a large share of international students, so once they were stopped in November 2024 the expectation was lower demand for rental housing, along with pressure on colleges and training centres that had planned around expected student arrivals.
What did Royal LePage predict for Toronto in 2025?
In comments reported by the Toronto Star in November 2024, Royal LePage chief executive Phil Soper said that despite the market's challenges the real estate industry and infrastructure in Toronto are strong and can show good growth in 2025. He noted recovery already underway in Halifax, Montreal and Calgary and predicted Vancouver and Toronto would follow in 2025.