Based on Moe’s video of January 20, 2025. For this month’s numbers, see GTA Housing Market Today.
این مقاله به فارسیRead in FarsiAs of January 2025, three pieces of Canadian news matter most for housing. Pierre Poilievre has tied the housing shortage to government policy and wants cities to build 15 percent more homes a year. Mortgage arrears rose again in October 2024. And the number of active businesses in Canada hit a record in September 2024.
My name is Moe Asgarian. I am a real estate broker in Toronto with RE/MAX, and this is the kind of news I go through with clients before they buy or sell. Here is what each story says and what I think it means.
Poilievre on Housing: Get Government Out of the Way
The interview was with Jordan Peterson, the psychologist and well known media figure, and it was recorded on December 21, 2024. That was five days after Chrystia Freeland, the former finance minister and deputy prime minister, resigned from Justin Trudeau's cabinet. By January 2025 the conversation had drawn roughly 2 million views online.
Poilievre treats the housing shortage in Canada as a fully political problem. His line is that we have the largest land base in the world, that land should therefore be very cheap, and that government simply needs to get out of the way. He said there is no physical or geographic reason Canada cannot give every person a real chance to own a home and start a family. His proposal: cities raise the number of homes they build each year by 15 percent, and local governments that miss that target lose federal funding in proportion.
I pay attention to this for one reason. As of January 2025 the man saying it is the one most likely to become prime minister of Canada before long, so his thinking is going to matter. The same interview covered an early election, criticism of the energy and oil sector, and immigration and crime, but housing is the part that lands on my desk.
Mortgage Arrears Rose Again in October 2024
Data from the Canadian Bankers Association shows that the rate of mortgages behind on payments rose again in October 2024, even with government support in place. As of that October 2024 report, more borrowers at the big Canadian banks were failing to pay on time. The rate was still at an acceptable level, and there had been periods that were worse, but it was a long way from a good number. Behind on payments here means 90 days or more without a payment. Someone who has missed one or two instalments does not appear in it, and private lenders are outside these figures, so including them would make the picture worse.
Here is the part I care about. People go bankrupt even in large and successful economies, and that on its own is not a crisis. What matters is whether the person who got into trouble can sell the home quickly and at a decent price and stop the damage there. The alarm only goes off when that door is shut, when someone fails in business and then cannot even sell their house into a slow market.
Fixed or Variable in Early 2025?
Since we are on mortgages, the question clients kept asking in early 2025 was whether to take a fixed or a variable rate. My answer at that time was variable if you can carry it. The expectation in January 2025 was that interest rates would keep coming down, and that variable mortgage rates would follow them lower through the new year. That was a call tied to that moment, not a permanent rule, so check where rates actually sit before you sign.
A Record Number of Active Businesses in September 2024
The third story is a good one on its face. Statistics Canada figures show the number of active businesses reaching a new record in September 2024. After the brutal drop during the COVID period the count climbed back gradually, and on a seasonally adjusted basis it grew by 2 percent to reach 939,170 in September 2024. According to the national statistics agency, most of that growth came from a handful of industries tied to real estate.
The problem is the comparison. As of September 2024 that growth was far slower than population growth, roughly one sixth of it on an annual basis, so it could not pull the other indicators up with it. The labour market was still in poor shape for the same reason. Many people see population policy as the weak point of the Trudeau government, and as of January 2025 that is a large part of why it looked unlikely to last. What still strikes me is how strongly business appetite runs toward real estate, and how much of Canada's business activity that one sector is carrying.
What These Three Stories Mean If You Are Buying or Selling in Toronto
Put together, the January 2025 picture is a market where borrowing is getting cheaper, where a minority of owners are under real strain, and where the political conversation is finally about supply. If you own, the lesson from the arrears numbers is to keep your home saleable, because speed of sale is the safety valve. If you are buying, cheaper money in 2025 cuts both ways, since it also brings competition back. If you want my read on your own situation, fill out the form at the bottom of this page or book a free consultation and we will go through it together. Stay well and take care.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Pierre Poilievre propose for housing in the December 2024 Jordan Peterson interview?
In the interview recorded on December 21, 2024, Poilievre called the housing shortage entirely political, said Canada has the largest land base and land should therefore be cheap, and argued that government needs to get out of the way. His concrete proposal was that cities increase the number of homes they build each year by 15 percent, and that federal funding be cut proportionally for local governments that fall short.
What counts as a mortgage in arrears in the Canadian Bankers Association numbers?
A mortgage counts as in arrears when the borrower has gone 90 days or more without making a payment. Someone who has missed one or two payments is not in that statistic. The data also covers several major banks rather than every mortgage in Canada, so private lenders are excluded, and the picture would look worse if they were included.
Was a fixed or a variable mortgage the better choice in early 2025?
In early 2025 my view was that if you could handle it, a variable mortgage made sense, because interest rates were expected to keep falling through the year and variable rates with them. That was a call made at that time. Anyone deciding later should check where rates actually stand before choosing.